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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

Kds86z said:
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My time has come: Supercell Tornadogenesis over Complex Terrain: The Great Barrington, Massachusetts, Tornado on 29 May 1995

Basically the mesocyclone is squished on the windward side, which decreases rotational velocity. But on the lee side, the mesocyclone is rapidly stretched, sharply increasing rotational velocity.
 
Justin Hindman said:
I won’t hate on the Spc, the models did look good, the only thing I’ll hate on is the pds tornado watch. I would have at least wanted to see one tornado break the cap before issuing it.
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I've been watching this stuff for decades now. The CAP is just a storm killer. After all these years models still cannot get that parameter right alot of the time, at least in todays forecasting environment, and the "forcing" was late from the West. Models just screwed this one up IMHO.

I mean think of this, back in 1974 with the then Superoutbreak of all time, forecasters had so much less tools and especially model data and other technology back then, and STILL got it called if I'm not mistaken about 2 days before the event. I think sometimes forecaster's have to go back to the basics as well.
 
Sky_I565 said:
I've been watching this stuff for decades now. The CAP is just a storm killer. After all these years models still cannot get that parameter right alot of the time, at least in todays forecasting enviorment and the "forcing" was late from the West. Models just screwed this one up IMHO.

I mean think of this, back in 1974 with the then Superoutbreak of all time, forecasters had so much less tools and especially model data and other technology back then, and STILL got it called if I'm not mistaken about 2 days before the event. I think sometimes forecaster's have to go back to the basics as well.
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Calling an outbreak is much easier than calling a failed outbreak. Sorry, but I don't think it's fair to compare this and also I don't think we have to go "back to the basics," whatever that means
 
Sky_I565 said:
I've been watching this stuff for decades now. The CAP is just a storm killer. After all these years models still cannot get that parameter right alot of the time, at least in todays forecasting environment, and the "forcing" was late from the West. Models just screwed this one up IMHO.

I mean think of this, back in 1974 with the then Superoutbreak of all time, forecasters had so much less tools and especially model data and other technology back then, and STILL got it called if I'm not mistaken about 2 days before the event. I think sometimes forecaster's have to go back to the basics as well.
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The answer here isn't "use less technology" or "go back to the basics." Models can learn and adapt. They also need better data, which unfortunately is now made harder due to funding cuts.
 
lurker said:
Calling an outbreak is much easier than calling a failed outbreak. Sorry, but I don't think it's fair to compare this and also I don't think we have to go "back to the basics," whatever that means
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Yea I think it's fair enough. Yesterday was a model failure and until a tornado has acutally formed in the PDS they should have waited a bit longer on issuing.
 
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