Severe weather threat 4/23/26 (Central/Southern Plains)

WeathermanLeprechaun said:

That CC is misplaced, and this signature makes no sense within the storm. Don't think that was a tornado.

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Hm, maybe. There was some sort of supercellular structure on radar.

First Kansas tor warning .

Tornado warning for Ogden, KS. Back end wrapping up on that complex right now.

What is the major inhibiting factor in South OK/North TX area that's preventing initiation? Is there a cap, and if so, what's holding it back from breaking?

Ebaad Jaffery said:

What is the major inhibiting factor in South OK/North TX area that's preventing initiation? Is there a cap, and if so, what's holding it back from breaking?

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Pretty stout inversion over that area from what I can tell. The main thing holding back initiation right now is a lack of
lift, though I wouldn't dissmis the idea of an discrete storm popping up down there.

Areas affected...southwest into south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 137...

Valid 232226Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 137 continues.

SUMMARY...Conditions are favorable for a supercell or two, with very
large hail and tornado risk primarily over southwest into
south-central Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows towering CU along the
dryline from southwest OK where temperatures have risen into the 90s
F. Meanwhile, gusty south/southeast winds have maintained upper 60s
F dewpoints east of the dryline. Given cool midlevel temperatures
and steep lapse rates, this is resulting in an area of very strong
instability.

Notably, GPS PWAT sensors indicate relatively greater values near
the Red River and south into TX, while drier air aloft is more
evident into central OK currently.

The dryline is expected to back westward later this evening, while
the low-level jet also increases rapidly into the 40-50 kt range.
Since the moist sector is not cool, the entire area should remain
quite unstable, and several models suggest an isolated supercell
will be possible. If this occurs, very large hail and a tornado risk
is evident. Forecast hodographs indicate a relatively slow storm
motion to the east for a right-moving supercell.

..Jewell/Hart.. 04/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

Possible initiation in SW OK

incredibly ominous sign of what’s to come, i’m afraid. it’s been a minute since we’ve seen an all-hazards string of 8-10 days of highly volatile atmospherics.

OKC area could be under the gun in a couple hrs. If one sprouts and holds on it could be big for a bit.

Muwx said:

Possible initiation in SW OK

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Where?

The cells in the area of the Vance AFB radar remind me of some significant tornado events. Multiple updrafts in close proximity…. If the can consolidate and deviate slightly right, it could put on a big show.

Ebaad Jaffery said:

Where?

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Fredrick

Emergency management reports a tornado tracking toward Shenandoah, Iowa.

Theres convection in SW OK. You gotta go to the OKC radar to see it though because its so close to the Frederick Radar. Its on both Echotops and reflectivity.

Ozonelayer said:

Theres convection in SW OK. You gotta go to the OKC radar to see it though because its so close to the Frederick Radar. Its on both Echotops and reflectivity.

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Been there about 30 minutes and really haven’t done much. Cap is still holding on it appears and we’re about past peak heating. Gonna need some lift or ok could cap bust again.

Muwx said:

Been there about 30 minutes and really haven’t done much. Cap is still holding on it appears and we’re about past peak heating. Gonna need some lift or ok could cap bust again.

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Did someone say B word? Let’s not .

SPC getting bullish on the possibility on storms down there

Kds86z said:

Did someone say B word? Let’s not .

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Relax. It’s a legit possibility. Being afraid to discuss the possibility is incredibly lame and ignores a legitimate possibility