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Severe weather threat 4/23/26 (Central/Southern Plains)

jiharris0220 said:
Im becoming increasingly confident about initiation in southern OK this evening. The NAM, 3km NAM, hrrr, RRFS, and the MPAS have become consistent and all are now showing supercells development after 7pm when the dryline bulge begins to retreat.
Between the forcing mechanism from the trough and the STJ, theres an area of diffluence right over this kink in the dryline where convergence is maximized.

The SPC is now confident enough as well to issue a potential Tor Watch.
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if anything does go along the dryline (which I agree seems likely), it's going to be a big problem. there's a decent swath along the dryline in central Oklahoma where STP values are progged in the 6-7 range in the 0-3z timeframe.
 
eep said:
Checked the last OUN sounding and it has CIN at -40, might be missing something but I don't believe that that's all that significant of a cap?
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Yes, it’s also important to note that this 3pm sounding shows a respectable and very moist PBL, which really wouldn’t take much to uplift through the inversion layer.

What’s more, this obviously was taken in central OK.
The area where the dryline is actually located at simply isn’t even capped anymore looking at the 3pm Skew-Ts.
 
eep said:
Checked the last OUN sounding and it has CIN at -40, might be missing something but I don't believe that that's all that significant of a cap?
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I don't think it will keep convection from happening, but i think we are still at least a couple hours away from go time.
 
warneagle said:
probably 2-3 hours until you have the best parameters in place down there, yeah. all quiet on the western front for the moment though.
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Don’t expect initiation until after 7pm, most likely 8pm as that’s when forcing maximizes coinciding with the full retreat of the dryline.
Even then it’s still a 50/50 shot of anything actually getting going, but I’m leaning towards initiation at least for now.
 
At least a few cells in Kansas look like they're trying to form hooks. We may need to watch these closely.
 
People are already beginning to (ab)use overpasses as shelters. Naturally, Ryan Hall's rightfully calling them out on it.
 
UpperLevelLOL said:
Seems like all this guy does is complain
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Yeah, he’s pretty insufferable. Of course it’s going to take some time for the SPC forecasters to be adept with the new system, and every tweet I see from him is pessimistic in some way. Also, the SPC may straight up just disagree with a need for CIG2 hatching there (although I’d struggle to see a reason why…)
 
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