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Severe weather threat 4/23/26 (Central/Southern Plains)
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
Well alright then…
Kds86z
Member
Trey is very strong on today.
TornadoFan
Member
Looks like they did expand that enhanced risk further southward into Oklahoma
- Thread starter
- #66
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
There are shades of 4/19/23 here. That being said, q conditional threat down along the dryline in S OK does exist. Strong tornado or two possible in SE KS with the greatest confidence in a tornado threat.
If a supercell fires along the dryline in S Central OK, couple of tornadoes possible.
If a supercell fires along the dryline in S Central OK, couple of tornadoes possible.
- Thread starter
- #67
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Actually odd why the HRRR doesn't fire at all in that area of C OK. I can easily see a sig all hazards threat. I think it's moreso down to supercell maintainance with this one, but cells are ripe to fire.
Kds86z
Member
Schoeppeya
Member
You manifested this because latest and greatest run does indeed fire a couple sups in central OK
- Thread starter
- #70
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, usually on these low predictability days, the HRRR is the model that catches up.
Ozonelayer
Member
We think its possible that more than one supercell fires? Haven't really been focusing on today so I figured I'd ask.
- Thread starter
- #72
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I'd say there's a opportunity for a couple to sustain. It's a conditional threat though, and cells aren't particularly guaranteed to sustain. If they do though, there could be a 4/19/23-eque event here with deviant, strong tornadoes.
Weatherguyx
Member
jiharris0220
Member
16z hrrr now initiating a couple of cells in southern OK. It’s been doing this on and off but this is by far the most robust run yet.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
TornadoFan
Member
First tornado warning of the day goes to Nebaraska and Iowa
Ozonelayer
Member
Quite the impressive cell near Little Souix, IA. Its also TOR warned and has solid rotation. Lets see what happens
jiharris0220
Member
Im becoming increasingly confident about initiation in southern OK this evening. The NAM, 3km NAM, hrrr, RRFS, and the MPAS have become consistent and all are now showing supercells development after 7pm when the dryline bulge begins to retreat.
Between the forcing mechanism from the trough and the STJ, theres an area of diffluence right over this kink in the dryline where convergence is maximized.
The SPC is now confident enough as well to issue a potential Tor Watch.
Between the forcing mechanism from the trough and the STJ, theres an area of diffluence right over this kink in the dryline where convergence is maximized.
The SPC is now confident enough as well to issue a potential Tor Watch.