• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe weather threat 4/23/26 (Central/Southern Plains)

New day 2


..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA

WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT ARRIVING MID/LATE AFTERNOON, STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.
SUPERCELLS ARE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND COULD PERSIST
SO LONG AS STORM INTERACTIONS REMAIN MINIMAL. 40-45 KTS OF SHEAR AND
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL PROMOTE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS,
INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY-LARGE HAIL. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING. THE TORNADO
THREAT COULD INCREASE FOR STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE.

IN OKLAHOMA, IF AND HOW MANY STORMS DEVELOP REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALONG
THE DRYLINE. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE
SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW. A SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS DOES FARTHER NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS.
 
Here's the latest Day 2 from the SPC:
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery
of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a
surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low
may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A
secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the
forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will
accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the
surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far
north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as
far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

... Central and Northern Plains ...

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface
front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the
afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE,
vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the
frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma
northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day
in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching
trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence
along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas
into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not
particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support
a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of
instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail
would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two
would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the
forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.


As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable
airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front,
eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a
transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve
during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level
winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado
threat with any persistent discrete cell.

... Oklahoma and Northwest Texas ...

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east
of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining
largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely
require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in
the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some
potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at
least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support
supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado
threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move
off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable
environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1321Z (8:21AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Click to expand...
While I don't think I'd be able to share the maps here directly, the Day 2 Convective Outlook is a Slight (Level 2/5) Risk (5% CIG1 for tornadoes, 15% unhatched for wind, and 15% CIG1 for hail).
 
New day 2:

The most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and
vertical wind shear is expected to develop across central into
eastern KS Thursday afternoon into evening. Here, a few intense
supercells capable of all severe-weather hazards appear possible,
and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be required
in subsequent Day 1 outlooks.

...OK into north TX...

Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) is

 
Kds86z said:
Click to expand...

It's annoying this tweet is written with AI (general formatting and excess emojis...) but I think it's onto something. Idk if it's possible with the new system, but it seems like it could be a good use for a 5% Cig2 in North Central OK/South Central KS to balance the uncertainty and potential for strong tornadoes if something does break the cap
 
KCweatherboy said:
It's annoying this tweet is written with AI (general formatting and excess emojis...) but I think it's onto something. Idk if it's possible with the new system, but it seems like it could be a good use for a 5% Cig2 in North Central OK/South Central KS to balance the uncertainty and potential for strong tornadoes if something does break the cap
Click to expand...
Oh my bad dude @KCweatherboy . Sorry it just caught my eye. Like last Monday? The surprise supercell
 



STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS BY MID
AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT. THE LARGE BUOYANCY, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE
HAIL (2-3 INCHES IN DIAMETER) WITH THE INITIAL/MORE DISCRETE STORMS.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL PEAK THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INCREASE NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER - THERE
WILL BE STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THE ANCHOR/SOUTHERN SUPERCELLS
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. UPSCALE STORM GROWTH AND COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH
 
We also might really see the impact of the NWS budget cuts today. From what I saw it appears there were no 12z balloons launched in the entire risk area. Not a single launch in Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico Arizona, and Utah. That is really, really unfortunate on such a boom or bust day.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top