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Severe weather threat 4/23/26 (Central/Southern Plains)

WeathermanLeprechaun

WeathermanLeprechaun

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The SPC introduced a D6 15% for this upcoming Thursday. The discussion had a interesting tidbit noting that a "substantial severe weather event is anticipated"

Here is the discussion.

A more substantial severe weather threat is anticipated on Day
6/Thursday. The evolution of the mid-level trough still remains
unclear, but an overall pattern featuring broad troughing across the
southern/central Plains, moderate to strong instability, and a sharp
dryline, could support at least isolated supercells Thursday
afternoon/evening. Have added a 15% area from western/central
Oklahoma into southern/eastern Kansas where the severe weather
threat seems likely regardless of how exactly the mid-level pattern
evolves.

This is a short discussion but the SPC is hinting that Thursday could be a decent day for severe weather.

Some soundings i took in this outlined svr area were pretty decent, with strong low level shear and a adequate overlapping LLJ + moisture. Storm mode is still uncertain to call on, but right now, a potentially potent parameter space awaits S KS/N OK. I see some slight issues perhaps with shear vectors but overall, a concerning look synoptically.

The Plains has only seen one real significant event so far this year which was the cyclic supercell in NW OK earlier on in March. There is good potential for this one but uncertainty of course remains.

Discussion for this event goes here.
 
I have issues about the dryline and parallel vectors meaning we initiate off the dryline upscale but perpendicular vectors ahead would allow potentially discrete cells ahead. That being said, there are still issues and I'm not just impressed yet. If anything, it may depend WHAT OWS convection matures into. Potential for all hazards atm.
 
I will say the title should probably at least be changed to Central Plains as it seems this will moreso be around Nebraska and Kansas. However it seems like while models have latched onto a threat in the time region specifics are completely unknown right now.
 
Kds86z said:
Any chance we do another 2018 with no violent tornadoes?
Click to expand...
In 2024 the first violent tornado was 4/26, and in 2021 the first REAL violent (Newnan doesn't count) tornado was in December. We just have to wait and see what happens.
That being said, I've thought of three things that would make me consider this season to exceed 2018.
1- Violent tornado.
2- An outbreak with an OIS higher than 30, thus making it a major+ outbreak (The highest OIS in 2018 was 25 during 4/13-4/15)
3- More EF3's than 2018 (12).
 
Al
ThatGuy;P said:
In 2024 the first violent tornado was 4/26, and in 2021 the first REAL violent (Newnan doesn't count) tornado was in December. We just have to wait and see what happens.
That being said, I've thought of three things that would make me consider this season to exceed 2018.
1- Violent tornado.
2- An outbreak with an OIS higher than 30, thus making it a major+ outbreak (The highest OIS in 2018 was 25 during 4/13-4/15)
3- More EF3's than 2018 (12).
Click to expand...
Appreciate. Well we’re up to 6 EF3s now
 
TBH I don't think this is gonna be a 2018 level year in terms of busts. I mentioned in a previous thread that in order to get a year like 2018, you have to have a huge ridge sit over the alleys for an extended period of time. While this year has often led to lethargic severe weather, I'm gonna have to see a long lasting ridge build in before those comparisons hold any weight.
 
Here in Iowa if we don't get an EF4+ tornado it is a good year.
We've only had 2 good years in the last 5 years. :(
 
GXSC said:
Here in Iowa if we don't get an EF4+ tornado it is a good year.
We've only had 2 good years in the last 5 years. :(
Click to expand...

Last violent tornado in Iowa before Winterset 2022 was in October 2013. Then three straight years with at least one (2024 had Greenfield, and Elkhorn 4/26 crossed into the state although all the EF4-rated damage was in Nebraska, and I suspect Minden-Harlan from that day also reached EF4 intensity, although I don't consider it egregiously underrated based on the damage).
 
2018 had a standing, strongly positive NAO pattern that developed over the spring. Which led to the eventual reversal of the -AMO signature and contributed to the activity during the 2018 hurricane season.
But the constant east coast trough from that pattern completely squashed potential for any favorable trough injections from the North Pacific.
It’s important to keep in mind that 2018 wasn’t particularly inactive, as there were over 1100 tornadoes in the US that year.
It’s just that an unusually high number of those tornadoes were not significant. The jet streaks that year accompaning those trough injections were slow. Obviously due to the mid latitude ridging that literally was taking place almost across the entire northern hemisphere.
It’s easy to spot the persistent Greenland low that averaged throughout the early months, combined this with the strong El-Nino which was dumping all that latent heat in the northern latitudes, further enhancing the ridging, it’s easy to see why we only got trash synoptic set ups that year.
 
I'm gonna boost this website as it usually does fantastic on placement of tornado threats. Sometimes it will randomly output random 2% vicinities like it has for today but it is outputting a 5% for Thursday at the moment.

https://rawinsonde.com/ASTORP_USA/SPC_hazards.html

GFS has trended towards less of a mess and more of a seemingly struggling cluster of storms in OK? It fires a nice line up in Minnesota too with low end damaging wind/tor potential.
 
Don't you just love when people keep calling threats like Thursday "insane" in the long range on one deterministic run?

Ever heard of ensembles LMAO. If this threat was high end, SPC would've had the 30% out and strong wording. SPC notably downtrended their wording a lot in their latest D4-8, unlike yesterday when they mentioned substantial potential.

I don't use SCP to determine peak parameter spaces because what matters is what is utilised in the environment. If you get a cell east of the best parameter space but you look at SCP, you're gonna think "we could see a cell develop here!" but you're not seeing the main picture.

I've went on this rant a lot so I think most of you would get the point. We've all hyped before, i know I'm no stranger to it but most of them never truly learn lol.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Don't you just love when people keep calling threats like Thursday "insane" in the long range on one deterministic run?

Ever heard of ensembles LMAO. If this threat was high end, SPC would've had the 30% out and strong wording. SPC notably downtrended their wording a lot in their latest D4-8, unlike yesterday when they mentioned substantial potential.

I don't use SCP to determine peak parameter spaces because what matters is what is utilised in the environment. If you get a cell east of the best parameter space but you look at SCP, you're gonna think "we could see a cell develop here!" but you're not seeing the main picture.

I've went on this rant a lot so I think most of you would get the point. We've all hyped before, i know I'm no stranger to it but most of them never truly learn lol.
Click to expand...
I think a lot of it is just how this season has went so far. Everyone is wishcasting at this point. I recall the same thing happening in 2024.
 
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