WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Appreciate your input as always being one of the best on the forum especially for upcoming events like this!
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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
My concerns for Tuesday are definitely growing. Now, admittedly I think I'd hold back on wording such as "historic" and i respect Gabe and all, but it is early days to throw that potential out.
While Tuesday is growing to look like a interesting day in the Plains, with a defined 500 mb ejection overlapping moderate instability and very strong low level shear + ventilation, we still do need some more agreement on how our ejection holds. Tuesday is absolutely not a guarantee to be high end at this moment, but this is beginning to get a bit "uh oh" for me. I am not interested in any other day really unless they trend better. We'll see, but this is becoming a day to monitor closely
While Tuesday is growing to look like a interesting day in the Plains, with a defined 500 mb ejection overlapping moderate instability and very strong low level shear + ventilation, we still do need some more agreement on how our ejection holds. Tuesday is absolutely not a guarantee to be high end at this moment, but this is beginning to get a bit "uh oh" for me. I am not interested in any other day really unless they trend better. We'll see, but this is becoming a day to monitor closely
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Well, which day are we talking about. Shear can be a hindrance but I find that the issues with Sunday is thermodynamically and kinematics wise too. Shear of 30 kts is good for supercells but when talking outbreaks, the 50+ kt range I think is decent enough to estimate. 40 kts can do stuff too but cells can be longer lived with the stronger shear and having 60 kts or so on Tuesday with a adequately timed trough ejection overlapping moisture wouldn't be exactly a ideal scenario.
Ozonelayer
Member
"On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into
the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable
airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern
Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and
southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the
southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will
be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes
are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be
possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases
on the timing of the ejecting trough."
-Broyles's D6 forecast for Tuesday. Very strong wording.
the southern Rockies, as an associated mid-level jet streak ejects
northeastward across the southern High Plains. A moderately unstable
airmass will likely be in place by afternoon from the southern
Plains northeastward into mid to upper Mississippi Valley and
southern Great Lakes. Strong deep-layer shear is forecast over the
southern and central Plains, where a substantial severe threat will
be possible. Supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes
are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening. An upgrade will be
possible across parts of the threat area, once confidence increases
on the timing of the ejecting trough."
-Broyles's D6 forecast for Tuesday. Very strong wording.
N0mz
Member
Surely I didn’t see someone post a tweet of a deterministic ICON run for day 6
@Central Ohio Wx did you have “super outbreak” mention on your bingo card lol?
South central Iowa on Tuesday 
Oh yeah, I was talking about Sunday. Looks like all the ingredients ramp up a bunch Monday and Tuesday.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Indeed I did!
Now all I need's an EF3 near Holly Springs and a bust sometime later this month.
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We haven't had any strong tornadoes in the state since 2024. Looks like that streak might end with a bang.
Patiently waiting to see @jiharris0220 and @CheeselandSkies thoughts on Monday/Tuesday
I just woke up from a strange dream this morning and while I usually don't put stock into them, the SPC's multi-day prediction for NTX must have me a little rattled on a subconscious level.
I sincerely hope that predicted severe weather is more bark than bite. Does not help that it is April...
I was in one of the houses my grandparents rented during my teen years.
It was in the middle of an Ohio winter and snow had already covered the ground.
I had let the dogs out to do their business when the sky lit up with lightning. I shouted at the top of my lungs for them to come in and after they did, I went about my evening - albeit a little unnerved.
Don't remember how the next part started, but we wound up running to the basement because a fierce 'snownado' that soon engulfed the house from the outside. Blew out one of the basement walls too! The rest of the house was intact as we did clean-up, save for a back wall in my bedroom on the second floor being gone. But about halfway through that, as one of a helpful neighbor complained that 'maybe if you kept a cleaner room, we'd have less work', the wind picked up again and we booked it for the basement
It was in the middle of an Ohio winter and snow had already covered the ground.
I had let the dogs out to do their business when the sky lit up with lightning. I shouted at the top of my lungs for them to come in and after they did, I went about my evening - albeit a little unnerved.
Don't remember how the next part started, but we wound up running to the basement because a fierce 'snownado' that soon engulfed the house from the outside. Blew out one of the basement walls too! The rest of the house was intact as we did clean-up, save for a back wall in my bedroom on the second floor being gone. But about halfway through that, as one of a helpful neighbor complained that 'maybe if you kept a cleaner room, we'd have less work', the wind picked up again and we booked it for the basement
I sincerely hope that predicted severe weather is more bark than bite. Does not help that it is April...
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
can't wait for a inevitable CC upload as we get much closer to our 2 big big days
N0mz
Member
Just a little bit of model spread
DanLarsen34
Member
I always find it funny that “super outbreak” gets thrown around relatively loosely with setups these days. I’ve never been a big fan of the “generational” usage by some either (thinking of times James Spann has done this with subsequent high-end days since 2011, although I notably don’t recall him doing that with March 15 last year) because it might not take another 30-40 years for another one to happen. However, I really only think the super word should be used when you have one of THOSE set-ups.
It’s also worth noting that this isn’t the first setup where we’ve had a model run like this well in advance. April 5, 2023 looked like one 5-8 days out only to downtrend (also, ironically, over a similar area to this potential event).
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
the fact that tuesday could go 30 per that discussion is def noteworthy
slenker
Member
There isn't nearly enough model agreement yet to be throwing around the terms "super" and/or "generational" for sure. People are looking at the ICON and AIGFS and taking them over the others. Realistically speaking, the only direction the ICON's solution can go is down, and the ICON being the ICON may not do that until we get much closer to the event since it's not as good of a model as the others.
If the other operationals trend towards the ICON by D3-4? Sure, we can maybe start saying "generational" potential, but mesoscale factors won't be known until the day-of, and as we know those make or break events. I'm guilty of overhyping things well in advance myself and I'm trying to be better about it. You'd think chasers on twitter would know better than to throw around these words so willy-nilly on Twitter this far out, given the experience they have.
bckhd2
Member
I also feel like the "super outbreak" verbiage gets thrown around a lot more freely these days. I guess part of it is probably that nowadays any joker with an internet connection can get on Twitter and start predicting "generational EF5 tornado day." But I'm always hesitant when we're still 4-6 days out from an event to start saying it's going to be another super outbreak. I mean all of us can bring up a dozen days from just the last 5 years where things were looking pretty scary leading up to a day only for it to downtrend shortly before the event. I always think of 4/12/2020 which was supposed to be the apocalypse part 2 in the Southeast really up until the morning of, but luckily didn't live up to its full potential. There's just too many tiny mesoscale factors that can shift drastically that are too hard to predict and for models to evolve accurately this far out to be throwing around "super outbreak" and "generational."
N0mz
Member
Yeah, I'm not really sure you can even call something generational at like noon the day of. Mesoscale factors matter too much and are impossible to pin down before then. See: every dixie high parameter event ever.