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Severe Weather Threat June 15-23

N0mz said:
Basically just a wind threat now. Still completely overperformed, easily would have warranted a mdt for tors
Click to expand...

I think it performed about as expected given sustained supercell initiation. That was an upper-echelon parameter space.

Attached a couple of box-average soundings from yesterday's 18Z HRRR, I don't think I've ever before seen an environment with a 3KM EHI in the vicinity of 14-15 units (I found some point soundings with values approaching 20) that wasn't hopelessly capped. Maybe it existed on something like 4/27/11 but I wasn't looking at forecast soundings then.

I admit I was skeptical because it seems like we've seen a lot of days in recent years with conditional high-end supercell potential but the warm 700mb temps have always won until last night.
 

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  • hrrr_2025062018_008_area_46.32-47.28.-99.04--97.91.png
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  • hrrr_2025062018_008_area_46.93-47.25.-98.91--98.52.png
    hrrr_2025062018_008_area_46.93-47.25.-98.91--98.52.png
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