Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Florence

[Tyler Penland]

Looking good right now. Probably try to clear out an eye soon. Still moving due west or with a wobble either direction. Gonna be an interesting wait for the turn.

 

[JayF]

 

[Fred Gossage]

REALLY REALLY getting concerned about a stall near or after landfall. This will likely end up being a system with multiple hazards in the extreme range of seriousness.

 

[rolltide_130]

REALLY REALLY getting concerned about a stall near or after landfall. This will likely end up being a system with multiple hazards in the extreme range of seriousness.

I'm not trying to make this political, but I'm beginning to buy into the theory that climate change is having some sort of impact on so many storms stalling right at landfall or just inland. Its been a yearly issue since 2015 along the coast with both tropical and subtropical systems, and its something that hasn't been a regular occurrence previously.

 

[warneagle]

REALLY REALLY getting concerned about a stall near or after landfall. This will likely end up being a system with multiple hazards in the extreme range of seriousness.

We've had a ton of rain up here (I'm in the Maryland suburbs of DC) this year and it's been pouring all weekend. Almost any sustained rainfall in the mid-Atlantic is going to produce serious flooding problems in the DMV and PA

 

[warneagle]

Since I'm a historian, this is the kind of thing that fascinates me, and it really shows what a historical anomaly Florence's forecast path is.

(and no, the one that hit Florida isn't Andrew, it's an unnamed storm from 1901)

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

Since I'm a historian, this is the kind of thing that fascinates me, and it really shows what a historical anomaly Florence's forecast path is.

(and no, the one that hit Florida isn't Andrew, it's an unnamed storm from 1901)

Seriously???

 

[warneagle]

Seriously???

Yeah, we're literally in uncharted territory if Florence follows the forecast path.

 

[Tyler Penland]

Almost definitely a real eye clearing out now after trying all day. The bomb is about to go off.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah the current rainfall forecasts would result in some pretty catastrophic flooding up here. We're already way above average rain and the soil is very saturated. Plus more rain tonight and tomorrow. Even the low end of the rain forecasts could be very bad news.

EDIT: I checked some of the other maps and a substantial part of the mid-Atlantic (including here) is at the 99th percentile for soil moisture and a lot of the area is from 150% to as much as 300% of average YTD rainfall.

 

[rolltide_130]

The eye is opening up right now on GOES 16. Truly a sight to behold.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso2-14-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

[Mike S]

Latest advisory is out. Florence up a bit to 90mph.

Looks like they've bumped the timeline up a few hours as well.

 

[rolltide_130]

Latest advisory is out. Florence up a bit to 90mph.

Looks like they've bumped the timeline up a few hours as well.

Just based on satellite, I would argue its over 90. Its looking like something nasty is coming on IR with a very nice eye opening up.

 

[KoD]

ECMWF still more aggressive with it's landfall and inland hit projection. GFS maintaining a coastline stall & loop.

 

[Daryl]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 58.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

 

[Daryl]

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

How does Florence compare to Opal in regards to moving inland?

 

[Tyler Penland]

How does Florence compare to Opal in regards to moving inland?

Not even close. Opal was booking. Florence may stall entirely or head into SW VA.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

 

[Daryl]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

 

[rolltide_130]

Florence is going nuts. 120 knot winds in the NE eyewall and 945 extrap pressue in the center on this pass.

This thing may be cat 4 before the day is over. This is insane.