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Severe WX Severe Weather threat for 7/19-7/22/18

Do you think a moderate risk will come out of this threat?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 45.5%
  • No

    Votes: 5 22.7%
  • An enhanced risk, but not a moderate

    Votes: 6 27.3%
  • It should be a high risk for the wind threat

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .

ARCC

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Both WRFs keying in on tomorrow. Has the strong MCS running from north AL moving southeast to central GA in the mid to late morning time frame. A little slower and it hits in peak heating.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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I see only a slight tick up in the amount of cloud particles on shortwave IR back to my northwest. I’m going to stay about an hour more longer, and see if anything changes.
 

Equus

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North end of the MDT absolutely verified in hail/wind, but looking increasingly like the southern half and much of the enhanced area is going to be a cap bust. Not the whole event, mind you, but even if there is a burst of activity a good chunk of the higher risk areas escaped with little impact. Could have been worse.

FWIW, 04z HRRR still fires stuff in TN in a few hours, but I'm not buying into that yet given today's trends
 
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Equus

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Let's just hope the cap holds all night, RAP on mesoanalysis page projects 300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH across the TN valley in N AL with 2,000 j/kg+ of lingering CAPE by 3 or 4am. I suspect CIN and lack of serious enough forcing will keep things tame, but it's an uneasy sleep knowing parameters out there are that volatile, cap notwithstanding.

The upstream stuff in MO/KS is very interesting - and may be the beginnings of our issues tomorrow - but right now is a long way off from here. Am almost ready to call it a night, though I still think SE KY/E TN/ maybe N GA could have some issues with bowing line segments for the next little while.
 
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KoD

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Do y'all think they'll expand the moderate risk?? /s

We certainly lucked out. Could've been pretty nasty given the environmental parameters.

Looks like we've got a large slight risk mainly for AL, GA, S/N Carolina and far East TN
 

Equus

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There's some intensification and growth of linear storms in KY under a favorable jet exit region, a new SVR watch east of here for said SE KY/E TN/N GA cluster, and a lot of stuff happening in AR we may have to deal with by morning, but things look calm here for now and I'm calling it a night. Might get up early to check stuff but am gonna turn in for a few hours at least. NW flow events are weird.
 

ARCC

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For all it's faults the HRRR schooled the other models yesterday. If it is right again, the rain and storms on both sides of the state of AL is all we get. Eastern GA may have a busy day though.
 

Richardjacks

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For all it's faults the HRRR schooled the other models yesterday. If it is right again, the rain and storms on both sides of the state of AL is all we get. Eastern GA may have a busy day though.
Don't you think it's too early to rule out central and north Alabama? There seems to be enough spacing between the two mcs and certainly enough time for the afternoon.

However, looking at the western mcs, its expansive area of rain will be to our south for quite a while. Maybe you are right.
 

ghost

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Watching that MCS this morning on radar looks like Sherman's Army marching through Georgia
 

rolltide_130

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Don't you think it's too early to rule out central and north Alabama? There seems to be enough spacing between the two mcs and certainly enough time for the afternoon.

However, looking at the western mcs, its expansive area of rain will be to our south for quite a while. Maybe you are right.

Considering its mid-Summer and our CAPE is untouched from yesterday, I'm not concerned with that MCS to our south being an issue. I just don't think its cold enough up top to ger much more than pulse storms.
 

ARCC

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Don't you think it's too early to rule out central and north Alabama? There seems to be enough spacing between the two mcs and certainly enough time for the afternoon.

However, looking at the western mcs, its expansive area of rain will be to our south for quite a while. Maybe you are right.

I agree. I'm just saying if the HRRR has the crystal ball right again. No way I'm gonna put my faith in it though. As soon as we do, we will have a tornado outbreak on our hands.
 

ARCC

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Considering its mid-Summer and our CAPE is untouched from yesterday, I'm not concerned with that MCS to our south being an issue. I just don't think its cold enough up top to ger much more than pulse storms.

I think if we get the convergence to cause pulse storms we will have problems as the shear aloft is plenty sufficient for severe storms. The problem is lack of surface convergence along the front. Normally it wouldn't be a problem for pulse type convection but we have to have something more with the strong EML to get the updrafts going. The HRRR has a mesolow develop over northeastern AL which is likely the reason for convection it's forecasting over GA. I don't think CAPE will be an issue.
 

Bama Ravens

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So now the greater risk for today has shifted to south and east Alabama and S Georgia, I guess. I don’t think anyone knows when, where, or if storms are going to happen.

fema04_swody1.png
 

Gus

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Been a while since we had such a busted forecast. The front just split in two and missed north Alabama. Weird.
 
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