• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX Severe Weather threat for 7/19-7/22/18

Do you think a moderate risk will come out of this threat?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 45.5%
  • No

    Votes: 5 22.7%
  • An enhanced risk, but not a moderate

    Votes: 6 27.3%
  • It should be a high risk for the wind threat

    Votes: 1 4.5%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .

FEARLESS

Member
Messages
37
Reaction score
3
Location
Signal Mountain, TN
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The wind sheer from the cell over South Carolina seems to be breaking off and feeding the north midwestern cell as well.
 

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,380
Reaction score
697
Location
Huntsville, AL
There's ample potential for very strong/severe Thunderstorms, but where they'll be and when they'll come is not easily determined. There's simply too much uncertainty to say X city will get Y at around Z o'clock. What we do know is that the atmosphere is explosive and there's a lift mechanism gliding across a large area, and with southern extend the impacts become less certain.
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
1,155
Reaction score
1,308
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
I believe Alabama's threat for severe storms is now developing way up in Missouri. Lots of instability ahead of them.
DilAQPZXsAEs1Sx.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: KoD

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,380
Reaction score
697
Location
Huntsville, AL
HRRR is weird in that it has multiple masses of convection, but no really wide MCS. If you take the HRRR at face value, much if north-central AL end up in a gap (not saying it’ll pan out exactly like that).
Indeed, seeing a lot of scattered convection, not really much in the way of bowing structures, "derecho" or otherwise larger-scale convection being depicted in the most recent model guidance. That said, things are just getting started. Many model runs the past couple days didn't have much of anything until closer to 01-04Z so we may have hours before larger upscale growth occurs.
Of course, the models don't mean much right now. Time to do mesoanalysis and wait and see where convection lines up.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
You’ll get burned more than you’d like using the HRRR before anything is initialized. It was horrid on the 6/28 derecho and was part of the reason why it “snuck up” on us.
 

bwalk

Member
Messages
597
Reaction score
291
Location
Prattville, Al
CAPE values are insane in NW Alabama this afternoon (Friday 7/20). Hovering in the 6000 range. Yes, it's July, but that's some extreme atmospheric food waiting to feed potential convection later tonight.
 

Bama Ravens

Member
Messages
1,207
Reaction score
649
Location
Morris, AL (Northern Jefferson County)
My predicament is that I live about 15 miles north of Birmingham, but I am sitting on the Alabama Gulf Coast until tomorrow, so I won’t be home for this. Luckily there aren’t any trees around my house, and falling trees is usually how homes get damaged in events like this.
 

Daryl

Member
Messages
316
Reaction score
99
Location
Boaz,AL
mcd1108.gif


Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
503
Reaction score
309
Location
Coosa county
The less or later the convection that forms tonight, the more interesting tomorrow becomes for more of central AL and GA.
 
Logo 468x120
Back
Top