Severe WX Severe Weather threat for 7/19-7/22/18

[rolltide_130]

The HRRR suddenly has discrete supercells slated for tonight.. that's a new one.

 

[amanda90]

I live in Memphis, been kind of cloudy this morning from a line of storms that passed to our west through Arkansas. Thought that might help things, but the suns back out now and it's brutal. Just a short walk outside to refill my dog's water bowl was uncomfortable, putting it mildly. You can definitely feel the charge in the air, if that makes sense..

 

[Evan]

Memphis loves derechos. Been awhile since their last one. Wonder how this one will compare?

There's a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. I expect there to be some surprises today and tomorrow. Question is, will they be good surprises or bad ones?

I am not buying that the derecho will dissipate so quickly after N AL. I expect issues as far south as Clanton. I also think the supercells will form a bit more to the west than currently indicated. This isn't me buying into a particular model solution or variation. It's more about how similar events have evolved in the - - with the obvious caveat that it is July.

 

[Equus]

The 3km NAM is also onboard with at least some cellular activity in N MS / S TN / N AL, and the 16z HRRR is even more aggressive with overnight cellular development.

 

[amanda90]

It's been fifteen years almost to the day of "Hurricane Elvis". Would really prefer we if we didn't do that again...

 

[Daryl]

 

[Daryl]

 

[ARCC]

The 3km NAM is also onboard with at least some cellular activity in N MS / S TN / N AL, and the 16z HRRR is even more aggressive with overnight cellular development.

That would be an interesting development pun intended. Also while tornadoes aren't the main weapon in a derecho, the CAMS have been adamant on a powerhouse book end vortex. The NAM earlier had a 1004mb mesolow forming with it as well. That would really back surface winds and raise low level helicity. So be on guard. These things do occasionally produce EF2-EF3 tornadoes in the bookend vortex.

 

[Equus]

Definite TOG west of Louisville, major CC drop and debris ball evident

 

[Equus]

PDS warning now, 65 DBZ+ in debris ball

 

[StormStalker]

Large tornado on the ground with that storm.

 

[Richardjacks]

A quick check of this morning's CAMs runs, I am not seeing one particular model over the others that is handling the current situation very well.

 

[akt1985]

Death toll from Branson, MO boat accident up to 17.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cb...es-sinks-table-rock-lake-missouri-2018-07-20/

 

[Daryl]

 

[Daryl]

 

[Daryl]

 

[ARCC]

A quick check of this morning's CAMs runs, I am not seeing one particular model over the others that is handling the current situation very well.

They really are flipping like crazy. MCS are fun because nothing handles them correctly.

 

[Equus]

3km NAM calls for discrete supercell development in W TN, and HRRR has a few isolated storms, but consistency is a lot lower than we had yesterday

 

[SilentShadow87]

Tornadic supercell in north-central Kentucky. If it maintains its strength and direction it'll pass right to the south of Lexington.

 

[warneagle]

Lexington is about to get hammered with straight line winds. Not right next to the radar but the velocities are around 75 mph.