Coming into the NAM range, check out that broad based trough.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
- Thread starter
- #42
rolltide_130
Member
12z GFS is indicating this may extend well up into the Ohio Valley as well..
Kory
Member
12z UKMET is about the same as the Euro from last night. Yikes.
X
Xenesthis
Guest
How does this look for southern middle TN?
warneagle
Member
Definitely in play on Tuesday, exact timing still TBD.
X
Xenesthis
Guest
Would later in the day Tuesday increase the tornado probabilities?
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,071
- Reaction score
- 1,304
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
12z gfs. Just looking gruesome overall for Dixie and upper south .. interested in ensembles ...
CheeselandSkies
Member
To my eyes it looks like the 06z and 12z GFS backed off the instability some compared to last night's 00z. I can't see the full suite of ECMWF products so I'll have to take you guys' word for it that it is more ominous (although what I can see, the 500 mb height and MSLP, certainly looks potent). "King Euro" seems to have been dethroned a bit in recent years although I still believe it remains the superior model.
- Thread starter
- #49
rolltide_130
Member
The GFS struggles with instability, especially with these systems where you should expect a slowing trend yet it for some reason speeds the system up WHILE making it even deeper than it had previously. I'm not concerned about that at all.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yet for some reason it consistently forecasts 5,000+ j/kg and EHIs in the double digits ahead of setups in the 84-120 hour range during the summer in the Midwest. I guess that's why I have a hard time wrapping my head around it.
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,071
- Reaction score
- 1,304
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
12z euro going come in looking very aggressive again ... for break down stuff. But mmm the broad trough .
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,071
- Reaction score
- 1,304
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
Got break down the parameters ... what trying say lol. I’m getting to hyped
Kory
Member
Holy cow the Euro. It's lines of supercells like trains on a track across MS/AL up into the Ohio Valley. It is faster...this is a late evening event for AL.
NWMSGuy
Member
Hour 84 and moving forward looks nasty on EURO. This is getting interesting.
X
Xenesthis
Guest
So according to the Euro where does the worst ingredients merge at this moment? What area seems to be the most under the gun?
MS/AL/TN, and ingredients and parameters have not backed off, just faster. This would bring a high tornado threat into west and northwest AL as early as 7-8pm Monday evening, and the Euro has it ending northwest of TCL to HSV by 3am Thursday, and pushing into GA by 6am Tuesday. The model verbatim, on its simulated reflectivity product, shows an outbreak of tornadic supercells from southern Indiana, all the way down to south Mississippi and south central Alabama.
Yes, Euro is a bit quicker, wow plenty of cape for this time of the year. It seems a little fast to me.
tennessee storm chaser
Member
- Messages
- 1,071
- Reaction score
- 1,304
- Location
- jackson tennessee
- Special Affiliations
- SKYWARN® Volunteer
West. Middle tenn. northern ms. North half ala... look ominous
The other globals trended faster too though. GFS isn't as fast, but now has the cold front moving into west AL by 6am Tuesday, and its ensembles support a slightly faster timing. Even the NAM at the end of the run supports a faster timing, with the surface low near St. Louis by 00Z Tuesday. This was actually the timing we originally had several days ago, when this first started showing up. I don't know if it's right, but I've noticed over the years that time timing you often see way out there is right, then in the mid range, things get wonked up, only to trend back toward the original idea as we get closer. Whether that's happening or not remains to be seen, but all guidance trended faster to some degree today.
Good point Fred.