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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 10/31-11/2

amp1998

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Now comes the time where everyone is watching the SPC convective outlook page like a hawk waiting,for it to update lol
 

Timhsv

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With the NAM 3KM and the SREF showing 0-1KM SRH at 440-445( m2 s-2)over North Alabama between 19Z-21Z. That's up there. Will be watching for a spin up
 

Kory

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Looks like the batch of storms will cut off moisture transport further north tomorrow. HRRR/NAM 3KM has a QLCS complex moving east along and south of I-20/59.

This was something I was concerned about precluding a larger threat further north. Still a damaging wind/tor threat along and south of 20/59.
 

rolltide_130

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A potential caveat I'm seeing across the more significant risk area today is too many storms going up and interacting with each other. That will have to be watched closely.
 

Kory

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Expansion of the ENH risk. This looks particularly nasty for South/Central LA and into SW MS. There will be opportunity for discrete cells ahead of the main QLCS which will look to pose a tor/damaging wind threat itself.
 

warneagle

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Storms are starting to fire south of Houston. First tornado warning of the day issued.
 

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rolltide_130

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Oh wow this could change things.. CAPE has been HORRIFICALLY underforecast according to SPC mesoanalysis when comparing to last night's model runs..

sbcape.conus.png


1541024907550.png
 

warneagle

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Yeah I'm really worried about Louisiana tonight, there could be some healthy supercells in front of the line.
 

rolltide_130

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Tornado warning on a discrete and very impressive looking supercell in TN near Jackson.

I'm getting worried this could be worse than advertised for areas north of I-20..
 
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Appears to be losing organization as it approaches the city. Warned cell in eastern Texas briefly had an eyebrow-raising couplet.
 

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