• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Logo 468x120

Archive Severe Weather 2019

Status
Not open for further replies.

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Part of the reason why this pattern is producing system after system with favorable severe weather parameters is the North Pacific. This is about as favorable as I have seen the NPAC since the cooler regime pre-2012. Despite being in an El Nino (that image shows a solid nino), we are seeing a lot of polar jet action.

Also, the Gulf of Mexico is torching.

rwFywHk.png
 

KG4KBU

Member
Messages
19
Reaction score
9
Location
Corbin, KY
When is the second system (after this weekend's system) suppose to produce severe weather ??

Sent from my moto e5 play using Tapatalk
 
Messages
1,032
Reaction score
1,223
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
When is the second system (after this weekend's system) suppose to produce severe weather ??

Sent from my moto e5 play using Tapatalk
That system will have a much better warm sector to work with ... as modeled today. By the 12z euro ... later next week ... so there going be some changes ... but man the pattern. Is Alive n kicking with possible big trouble ...
 
Messages
21
Reaction score
39
Location
Bossier City, LA
Want to say temper the expectations some. Widespread severe likely with a trough ejecting Tuesday but the high amplitude nature suggests very strong forcing and most likely a mess of storms. Likely rapid upscale growth too. Good to see more rains out west.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Want to say temper the expectations some. Widespread severe likely with a trough ejecting Tuesday but the high amplitude nature suggests very strong forcing and most likely a mess of storms. Likely rapid upscale growth too. Good to see more rains out west.
Storm mode may be different (I alluded to more linear forcing earlier) but I’m not sure that means a decrease in severe threat.
 
Messages
21
Reaction score
39
Location
Bossier City, LA
Storm mode may be different (I alluded to more linear forcing earlier) but I’m not sure that means a decrease in severe threat.
it depends. But for the most part.. linear modes out west this early in the year aren’t going to produce significant severe. QLCS tornadoes maybe, but we aren’t likely looking at anything major on Tuesday going into Wednesday. Just observations from the many high-amp early season troughs we see in March/April.

Big scary troughs don’t always mean big severe. Widespread wind reports probably but as things stand now I don’t expect anything significant on Tuesday. Of course, a few changes could make for a different story.
 

Richardjacks

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
1,155
Reaction score
1,308
Location
Atop Red Mountain Birmingham, Al
I have noticed over the years that when we have a pattern like this in early March the severe weather season in the southeast tends to wrap up earlier in April vs. later. It seems the westerlies start pulling northward when it is so active in early March. Regardless, given the above normal sea temperatures in the Gulf does make me think instability may over perform in the coming weeks creating what could be a volatile setup possibly multiple times going into early April...assuming the STJ doesnt inhibit every opportunity.
 

rolltide_130

Member
Messages
828
Reaction score
378
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
I have noticed over the years that when we have a pattern like this in early March the severe weather season in the southeast tends to wrap up earlier in April vs. later. It seems the westerlies start pulling northward when it is so active in early March. Regardless, given the above normal sea temperatures in the Gulf does make me think instability may over perform in the coming weeks creating what could be a volatile setup possibly multiple times going into early April...assuming the STJ doesnt inhibit every opportunity.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off an early ending to April either. I'm not trying to be alarming or disagree just to disagree, but the monthly outlooks for not only April but May support continued activity.. this year could be an active one not just for Dixie but for everywhere.
 

KoD

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,380
Reaction score
697
Location
Huntsville, AL
We have an ULL coming in near the middle of next week and the Euro drops it to 984, GFS upper 970s. Not seeing anything eye popping right now besides the depth of the low and some strong wind shear in areas. Still a lot to be worked out, doesn't look to be much of a Dixie threat with the wind direction matching up with the front. As of now it looks like additional flooding is the biggest risk.
I'm wondering if we'll have a big squall season this year. Similar to, 2012 was it?
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
There’s certainly a nonzero threat for severe next Wednesday/Thursday with that large trough ejecting out of the Rockies to the Plains.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top