Severe Weather 2019

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Technical Admin
Messages
422
Location
Hartselle, al
#1
I hope everyone had a great evening last night and rang in 2019 while celebrating the achievements and good times of 2018 while also remembering times that not have been so good in 2018. We do not become better by forgetting the past but learning from it. May God bless every one of you this New Year.

This is the beginning of the 2019 Severe Weather thread.
 
Messages
20
Location
Vancouver
#5
Purely anecdotal, but the last time OKC had a snowfall as large as what is possible today (>6”) was Feb 1-2, 2011.

Moving past anecdotes, this relatively active storm track through western North America over the past month or so has me a bit intrigued if it can continue in some matter into spring.
 
Messages
70
Location
Huntsville
#6
Purely anecdotal, but the last time OKC had a snowfall as large as what is possible today (>6”) was Feb 1-2, 2011.

Moving past anecdotes, this relatively active storm track through western North America over the past month or so has me a bit intrigued if it can continue in some matter into spring.
Me as well...
 
Messages
653
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
#7
Well, on the other hand, there's a pretty high probability (60% per NOAA) that we'll be looking at an El Niño into the spring months. I was actually just reading Cook, et al's paper on ENSO and winter/early spring tornadoes earlier this week, which suggests that tornado activity tends to be weaker and confined to lower latitudes during the El Niño phase.

I'm a natural pessimist, so I'm not getting my hopes up.
 
Messages
669
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Storm Mapping User
#8
Well, on the other hand, there's a pretty high probability (60% per NOAA) that we'll be looking at an El Niño into the spring months. I was actually just reading Cook, et al's paper on ENSO and winter/early spring tornadoes earlier this week, which suggests that tornado activity tends to be weaker and confined to lower latitudes during the El Niño phase.

I'm a natural pessimist, so I'm not getting my hopes up.
El Nino can increase the southern stream energy but it doesn't necessarily mean a season will be stronger or weaker by itself. There are other factors to consider as well such as the PDO and the moisture content of areas to our west. 1998 (Which may be the banner year for sustained Dixie activity sans 2011) was coming off an EXTREME Nino, and it was one of the most active we've had here. Regardless, as we start moving into the Dixie season over the coming months we'll be watching with diligence as we always do.
 
Messages
199
Location
Madison, WI
#9
El Nino can increase the southern stream energy but it doesn't necessarily mean a season will be stronger or weaker by itself. There are other factors to consider as well such as the PDO and the moisture content of areas to our west. 1998 (Which may be the banner year for sustained Dixie activity sans 2011) was coming off an EXTREME Nino, and it was one of the most active we've had here. Regardless, as we start moving into the Dixie season over the coming months we'll be watching with diligence as we always do.
That's why I was surprised (and I don't think I was the only one) at the lack of higher end events in April, 2016 coming off the Super Nino of 2015.
 
Messages
669
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Storm Mapping User
#10
That's why I was surprised (and I don't think I was the only one) at the lack of higher end events in April, 2016 coming off the Super Nino of 2015.
The PDO seems to have more to do with that than the Nino phase from what I've found, and the PDO is torching right now as it has been for a pretty long time with no signs of letting up anytime soon.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
1,964
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
#12
We had no other ENSO forcing (as it was in a neutral phase), and the PDO began to trend to a very positive state. Remember the blob in the North Pacific? That drove the mega PNA ridging.
 
Messages
20
Location
Vancouver
#13
The PDO seems to have more to do with that than the Nino phase from what I've found, and the PDO is torching right now as it has been for a pretty long time with no signs of letting up anytime soon.
I wouldn't quite say it's torching looking at the latest data. Seems to be more neutral if anything with the warmth in the western North Pacific as well. There is also some cooling off the coast of Mexico and Baja California, which is a change from the past several years.

2015 had a strong +PDO and was one of the more active years recently, but the main issue was the lack of an EML. Remove that problem, and May of that year could've been up there with some of the big ones over the last 30 years like 1995, 2003, 2004 and 2008. I'm not saying having a +PDO is beneficial, but there have been some big years with it too.
 
Messages
29
Location
Austin Texas
#14
I'm curious how this season will turn out with the El Nino in effect.

I usually get basic model info from weather.gov, which is down due to the gov shutdown. I love the gif play option. Do you guys have any suggestions on another website I could reference?
 

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