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This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%
  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .

rolltide_130

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Really says something when the most memorable tornadoes this year have been in Wyoming, Manitoba, Montana, and Ontario.

To be frank those would be A+ chases (except the Ontario one) in any given year. Its just been the more traditional tornado alley (between I-20 and I-80 from the Wyoming/Colorado/New Mexico border E to I-35) has had a record quiet year so they stand out more.
 
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Wonder with this se ridge being so stout ... could it persist into winter ... causing a active cool weather severe season. ... I know we’re in nino stage. Kind strange with the persistent stout se ridge...
 

warneagle

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Three separate tornado warnings in northwest PA, at least one confirmed TOG.
 

warneagle

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That confirmed tornado in PA apparently hit a nursing home, hopefully no casualties there. Several discrete supercells tracking across the northern part of the state.

 

warneagle

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Tornado watch is coming for northern WI.

mcd1518.gif
 

Taylor Campbell

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The remnants of Sergio have made for some really good looking supercells in Texas. The town of Eden, TX is in danger.
 
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Not sure to put this here or fall thread... but 0z gfs starting pickup on perhaps or first fall severe wx threat for Dixie and mid south region ...though its long range still...
 

Taylor Campbell

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wow... i know its 240 hours out there... but look at the 0z euro ummmm

I think you had a dream last night. I like those dreams too, but in reality I’m not seeing anything that impressive yet. I see potential, but a lot of work is needed.
 

Kory

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Overall, the pattern looks stormier, but it looks like a classic "entering El Nino" pattern. As with most patterns, the more active it is, the greater potential of something, but I don't see a particular time frame/system any models are latching onto.
 

rolltide_130

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Overall, the pattern looks stormier, but it looks like a classic "entering El Nino" pattern. As with most patterns, the more active it is, the greater potential of something, but I don't see a particular time frame/system any models are latching onto.

The monthly temperature outlook for November is a warmer and stormier one too.

I wouldn't be suprised to get at least 1-2 substantial threats between now and mid-December. These entering Nino falls seem to be our more conductive cool season patterns and 2002 is a seasonal analog that's fairly popular.

I'm hoping that translates to a 2003-esque plains season since next May could potentially be by far my longest duration trip out there for a few reasons (Not limited to scouting out a potential move to Denver post-graduation due to an abundance of potential jobs in that area), but I'm not holding my breath on that.
 

warneagle

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A couple of beautiful supercells today in New England, just like we all expected...

 
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