Severe Weather 2018

[rolltide_130]

Also, there's plenty of wind shear to work with for the late next week system, but whether or not we can get sufficient instability remains a question mark... I think the GFS is significantly underdoing it, but it most likely won't be extreme instability like Monday's event.

 

[Kory]

It's a pretty meridional trough per the models. It's going to be pulling a lot of air from the tropics, so probably not the best lapse rates. But I have a hard time believing the GFS verbatim regarding instability giving its background issues with it.

 

[Kory]

Euro/GFS would both be a severe weather event of varying degrees on next Thursday/Friday's system. The lesser-publicized threat may be the heavy rain potential as it taps tropical moisture. Still lots of questions as we're dealing with a southern stream trough over the SW that will be ejecting. Timing/orientation of those are always tricky.

 

[Kory]

GEFS guidance is the most bullish of all. CIPS analogs are triggering some high numbers for probability of 10+ severe reports, probability of 1 or more tornadoes, and mean rainfall (respectively).

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I could see this being a pretty significant damaging wind event with embedded tornadoes. The jet configuration, and the EURO’s base reflectivity are indicative of that.

 

[Weatherphreak]

I could see this being a pretty significant damaging wind event with embedded tornadoes. The jet configuration, and the EURO’s base reflectivity are indicative of that.

Being a week out a lot can change but you’re seeing more of a squall line with embedded tornadoes than a supercell event similar to last week?

 

[rolltide_130]

12z GFS would confine the severe threat to areas south of I-20 as the surface low will track mainly along that corridor. I do anticipate a NW trend with time however as this is still a fairly long ways out.

Being a week out a lot can change but you’re seeing more of a squall line with embedded tornadoes than a supercell event similar to last week?

At this stage it's WAY too early to really settle in on storm mode. Only thing that is looking somewhat confident at this point is that heavy rain will be a big hazard (And may even be the main story). This system has much more tropical influence than the last one did, so it will be much more waterlogged and lapse rates won't be quite as impressive barring some changes between now and then.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I could see this being a pretty significant damaging wind event with embedded tornadoes. The jet configuration, and the EURO’s base reflectivity are indicative of that.

The wave is trending toward a lower amplitude and negative tilt open wave as it ejects out, and 0-6 km bulk shear vectors are actually much more angled across the surface boundary than parallel to it. I would not be shocked if there are a few storms out ahead of the boundary this time. There probably won't be a strong cap with this.

 

[ARCC]

The wave is trending toward a lower amplitude and negative tilt open wave as it ejects out, and 0-6 km bulk shear vectors are actually much more angled across the surface boundary than parallel to it. I would not be shocked if there are a few storms out ahead of the boundary this time. There probably won't be a strong cap with this.

That is a big change on the GFS on the trough. Like you said, much more broader based than it was showing. Also by looking at the trough and embedded shortwave and knowing how these types of troughs can work, the GFS is potentially showing a one-two punch with the second shortwave diving into Texas.

 

[rolltide_130]

That is a big change on the GFS on the trough. Like you said, much more broader based than it was showing. Also by looking at the trough and embedded shortwave and knowing how these types of troughs can work, the GFS is potentially showing a one-two punch with the second shortwave diving into Texas.

The GFS completely clears out the Gulf with this upcoming system though. We would need several days of recovery to get another severe threat after this system with as far as that cold front pushes into the Gulf.

 

[Kory]

Euro looks rough for next Thursday. This is all trending worse for Alabama. Still 5-6 days out but the overall pattern is favoring active severe weather.

 

[Fred Gossage]

There may be a SSW to SW flow in the mid-levels with this, but the entire Gulf is filled with 6.5-7.0+ lapse rates because the trough taps the Mexican plateau still... and 0-6 km shear vectors are still angled across the boundary instead of parallel... not 90 deg, but the kind of angling you'd expect from SW to NE motion events in Dixie Alley most of the time. The op GFS is the southernmost track also. The Euro, UKMET, and all the GEFS members that have the system are all further northwest. This is heading toward another respectable tornado risk of some caliber for MS/AL/GA/TN/LA/maybe AR.

 

[ARCC]

The GFS completely clears out the Gulf with this upcoming system though. We would need several days of recovery to get another severe threat after this system with as far as that cold front pushes into the Gulf.

Yeah, taking the GFS verbatim the second threat wouldn't be there. I'm thinking more hypothetically. If the ridge is stronger than forecast then you could see the first system pushed farther west and the cold front stall out before lifting northward again with the second s/w pulling out of the west.

Things get very tricky when we start seeing the broad based troughs with embedded shortwaves.

 

[rolltide_130]

The pattern in the long/extended range is looking rather favorable for severe weather as we head into April.. this will definitely need to be watched closely.

 

[rolltide_130]

Long range GFS is showing a potentially volatile setup in the making.. stay tuned. Still a long ways out though so no need to get anxious, but we could have something to watch here early to mid April.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

lol, give me that look inside of about 120 hours (and on the Euro too) then we can talk.

In other news, outside chance of a couple of tubes in decent chase territory (SW OK/NW TX near the Red River Valley) today. Convective initiation/coverage is somewhat suspect but any storms that can stay alive should be a solid supercell.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

For some reason last night's 06Z GFS run never came in according to PivotalWeather. It's still showing me 00Z.

 

[KoD]

For some reason last night's 06Z GFS run never came in according to PivotalWeather. It's still showing me 00Z.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
It's up on ttb

 

[jmills]

Just looking in the long range, but the GFS has a healthy looking system around the 7th (and the CFS is trying to grab it as well). Thermos are weak, but that is to be expected with the GFS this far into the future. It however does lack the tropical influence that's plaguing the system later this week.

 

[rolltide_130]

lol, give me that look inside of about 120 hours (and on the Euro too) then we can talk.

In other news, outside chance of a couple of tubes in decent chase territory (SW OK/NW TX near the Red River Valley) today. Convective initiation/coverage is somewhat suspect but any storms that can stay alive should be a solid supercell.

This has more to do with general pattern recognition than an actual specific threat. While synoptic and mesoscale details obviously are going to be murky regarding this for a long time, the general pattern is saying this could be a potentially active period that will be worth keeping an eye on. With the last week system, for example, it was possible to tell that there would be a potential threat around the timeframe of the significant event last week as far ahead as two weeks out. Of course nothing may come to fruition, but the pattern for this timeframe is there.