Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by Taylor Campbell, Jan 23, 2018.
The operational UKMET was similar to ensemble member 20.
Large spread on the GFS ensembles for this period too.
The 0z Euro run is bad for Alabama.. going to wait a bit before jumping on board and for now I'll excuse it as somewhat being overzealous, but good lord..
Very large spread on the models.
What's the latest on the upcoming possible threat? Everybody got quiet.
Still waiting on the 0z models to come out as it takes another hour due to the time jump. There's a lot of potential problems showing up (Such as the same problems that plagued us on 4/5 last year) regarding the ceiling of the threat.
It's quite because nothing has really changed. Model inconsistency is beyond ridiculous, and will likely remain for a while. Some pretty intense solutions, but also some pretty tame solutions.
Don’t forget about Friday, and Saturday’s threat with the first shortwave to eject out of the west. This one looks interesting for us with the lapse rates, and discrete/scattered nature of the storms.
I created two threads. One for Friday/Saturday’s threat, and another for Sunday/Monday’s threat.
If the look on last nites 0z euro hold at 240hr. Something big is coming out that look.... know it will change. But that’s a very ominous pattern shaping up end of the month ... I’m just chomping at the bit I guess ...
Not too familiar with the Graph but looks like the CFS Severe Weather Guidance Dashboard is starting to light up.
I see there is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday over parts of Alabama. Is this the system that was so concerning 240 hours out?
Time to start looking down the road for the next potential.
The Plains looks potentially interesting on Friday, but I see no threats for Dixie over the next 10 days.
It will be VERY difficult to get a threat that will match or exceed yesterday's level again in AL this spring. Not impossible, but getting multiple moderate or even high risks in one year for North-Central AL is exceedingly rare.
I personally wouldn't say that considering the background pattern. Low AAM, NE confluence, and low amplitude MJO. This won't be the last threat by any stretch of the imagination. Of course most severe threats are determined by mesoscale, but synoptically, we are primed for April. Just have to see how mesoscale things work out...
Last couple of GFS solutions would support some degree of severe threat in the southern/central Plains sometime next weekend into early next week.
Also there's the tornado watch currently in effect over parts of FL, with another planned for GA/SC. Perhaps the other thread's title should be changed from March 18-19 to March 19-20.
Wow. Hope your joking ... it’s barrly spring Just first day that.... figure we going have plenty threats to come for Dixie and midsouth... there be good chance we have bigger fish to fry even Plains gets going later mid to late may. Course anytime. Can happen. April going be interesting indeed
Point made here. April 2011 ...west ten Memphis area was under high risk threat 3 different times that month. Not moderate. But a HIGH risk ... not saying happens ever again. But like kory said ...
Edit. Correct myself here. 2 times were April. Then we had a high risk later
May that year. Sorry my bad