Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%
  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
Messages
32
Location
Alabama
Next Thursday looks rough with recent model trends. Large scale troughing in the Western U.S. into the Plains with quality moisture return and high shear.
Next Thursday/Friday looks interesting to me too. Problem with Thursday at first glance is substantial warm sector contamination. If the current EURO is right, Friday morning looks potent for Dixie Alley.
 
Messages
1,964
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
The Euro rainfall is pretty crazy through the end of the run. Widespread 8-10 inches from LA/MS into AL/TN with isolated 12” locations. Heavy subtropical jet influence with a cut off trough over the Western/Central US will keep a boundary stalled over the region with widespread rainfall.
 
Messages
29
Location
Austin Texas
The Euro rainfall is pretty crazy through the end of the run. Widespread 8-10 inches from LA/MS into AL/TN with isolated 12” locations. Heavy subtropical jet influence with a cut off trough over the Western/Central US will keep a boundary stalled over the region with widespread rainfall.
They keep bouncing back and forth from a squall line with embedded severe storms with straight-line winds and hail to possibly some rotating tornadic storms here in Texas. They also switch from here in central Texas to a more northerly risk of severe weather. The local discussion said there was not going to be enough heating tomorrow to support supercells.

My worry is the models seem off already. We are getting showers already that were not supposed to be here until late tonight or tomorrow and we had an extremely foggy morning here, so the air is very, very saturated.

What do you guys think and what are you seeing when this system rolls east towards the mid-south. As I said before, I have family in Mississippi and Alabama that depend on me warning them ahead of time since I am the family weather nut.
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
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Messages
422
Location
Hartselle, al
Several Tornado Warnings have been issued this morning in Louisiana. Those storms are moving into Southern Mississippi soon.
 
Messages
1,964
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
The biggest problem will be excessive rainfall. High res models nail the I-20/59 corridor from the MS/AL line to Birmingham. Isolated 6-8 inches as the squall line stalls. This could be a serious flood problem.
 
Messages
1,964
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Lots of creeks and streams are overflowing banks this morning. Widespread 4-6" of rain have fallen in the past 12-18 hours across Central and Southern AL. Don't look now...another rainy stretch into the New Year. El Nino is making its presence known...

High water rescues in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi which have gotten near a foot of rain....
 
Messages
669
Location
Harvest, Alabama
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Storm Mapping User
Lots of creeks and streams are overflowing banks this morning. Widespread 4-6" of rain have fallen in the past 12-18 hours across Central and Southern AL. Don't look now...another rainy stretch into the New Year. El Nino is making its presence known...

High water rescues in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi which have gotten near a foot of rain....
It seems to me like the storm track this year has been significantly more active than the 2015 Nino, which was busy in it's own right.

I've seen sun less than 5 times the whole month of December.. this may be record.
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Technical Admin
Messages
422
Location
Hartselle, al
They just issued a Tornado warning off of that storm.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
WEST CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 1230 PM EST/1130 AM CST/.
 

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