Severe Weather 2018

This severe weather season will be?

  • Above Average

    Votes: 7 31.8%
  • Average

    Votes: 13 59.1%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 2 9.1%

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
Messages
633
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Storm Mapping User
Really says something when the most memorable tornadoes this year have been in Wyoming, Manitoba, Montana, and Ontario.
To be frank those would be A+ chases (except the Ontario one) in any given year. Its just been the more traditional tornado alley (between I-20 and I-80 from the Wyoming/Colorado/New Mexico border E to I-35) has had a record quiet year so they stand out more.
 
Messages
608
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
That confirmed tornado in PA apparently hit a nursing home, hopefully no casualties there. Several discrete supercells tracking across the northern part of the state.

 
Messages
1,864
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Overall, the pattern looks stormier, but it looks like a classic "entering El Nino" pattern. As with most patterns, the more active it is, the greater potential of something, but I don't see a particular time frame/system any models are latching onto.
 
Messages
633
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Storm Mapping User
Overall, the pattern looks stormier, but it looks like a classic "entering El Nino" pattern. As with most patterns, the more active it is, the greater potential of something, but I don't see a particular time frame/system any models are latching onto.
The monthly temperature outlook for November is a warmer and stormier one too.

I wouldn't be suprised to get at least 1-2 substantial threats between now and mid-December. These entering Nino falls seem to be our more conductive cool season patterns and 2002 is a seasonal analog that's fairly popular.

I'm hoping that translates to a 2003-esque plains season since next May could potentially be by far my longest duration trip out there for a few reasons (Not limited to scouting out a potential move to Denver post-graduation due to an abundance of potential jobs in that area), but I'm not holding my breath on that.
 

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