Severe Weather 2018

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by Taylor Campbell, Jan 23, 2018.

?

This severe weather season will be?

Poll closed Mar 1, 2018.
  1. Above Average

    7 vote(s)
    31.8%
  2. Average

    13 vote(s)
    59.1%
  3. Below Average

    2 vote(s)
    9.1%
  1. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    400
    Likes Received:
    191
    Location:
    Harvest, Alabama
    Special Affiliations:
    Storm Mapping User
    Coming in I think a lot of people thought it would most likely be a quiet plains year with Dixie getting the bulk of the action. After the originally ominous looking pattern turned out to be nothing more than a slightly quieter than average April, it set the stage for a potentially record low year.

    My biggest takeaway/lesson learned this season has been always forecast with persistence and doubt the models heavily if they're indicating an active stretch due to the current state of our background pattern. Somebody on the board whom I used to highly view and respect rather rudely and unprofessionally insulted me in my Facebook messages after I said that it would be difficult to top 3/19 this season, but frankly I turned out to be correct in that statement as I had some serious doubts in the back of my mind that we would be breaking this background state despite what the models were saying, especially as we settled into an absolutely bone chilling April. After looking into it further, this really was NOT a close resemblance to 2011 heading into it like what was being said at first glance in late March, with the most striking thing being the temperature averages across the CONUS.

    I've attached 3 images - 2011, 2014, and 2018 (2011 and 2014 being the two most active Dixie seasons of the decade and 2018 being obviously being me discussing what has gone wrong with this season)

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    April 2011, first off, was really your textbook look of an active larger scale pattern. Troughing in the W and NW was obvious with it being considerably cooler than average there, and there are signs of a bit of a suppressed ridge in the E US with warmer than average temperatures. This allowed shortwave after shortwave to fire out of the W US and race across the country, leading to a years worth of tornado outbreaks in the span of 30 days.

    2014 was more of a mix between 2011 and 2018 - the larger scale pattern wasn't quite as favorable with the ridging in AK and the SW US and eastern troughing, but it wasn't quite as pronounced and it was able to break down enough to produce the late month tornado outbreak as well as some smaller scale events throughout the month.

    2018 though is definitely what you do NOT want to see when looking for a larger scale pattern. Very, very strong ridging out west with some absolute bone chilling cold further east that really did not break much except for a day or two ahead of any incoming systems (Not good for airmass recovery). I don't know if we did so here, but I know there were definite record lows across the midwest as well as an absolute noreaster machine off the east coast. This led to a case where the ridging was TOO suppressed and the bulk of our severe threats wound up confined to S MS and AL, and areas north of I-20 really wound up in the cool sector for the most part. And then, once we got to May, we almost immediately flipped to a high-amplitude ridge which didn't allow for proper trough ejections and nearly everything that attempted to move into the plains got sheared out save for a few mesoscale high plains events and the KS event (That I wanted to chase but couldn't get out there until the next day gahh).

    As for why that's the case, I've read papers that an SSW event (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event in late February pretty much forced a total breakdown of the jet stream and associated upper level pattern, which put us back into a state of deep winter in April. If that's actually the case, I'm not entirely sure, but it's an interesting theory that a lot of research is being conducted on.

    As for statistics, we've still yet to get our first EF-4+ of the year, and every day that goes by between now and November sees the odds get lower and lower for that to happen. If we make it past the summer solstice without an EF-4, odds are very strong that we may have to wait until November for another realistic opportunity, and that may put us at greater than 50-60% odds of seeing the first year on modern record without a violent tornado, as the cool season is very hit-or-miss.
     
    #381 rolltide_130, Jun 10, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
    Equus and CheeselandSkies like this.
  2. warneagle

    warneagle Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    441
    Likes Received:
    186
    Location:
    Silver Spring, MD
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    This day 4 30% feels like a high risk would most seasons. I know it's not primarily tornado-driven but beggars, choosers, etc.
     
  3. Jason Ledbetter

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    66
    Likes Received:
    32
    Location:
    Cartersville Ga
    Amazing pics!
     
  4. warneagle

    warneagle Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    441
    Likes Received:
    186
    Location:
    Silver Spring, MD
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    Tomorrow's got some potential if you've got a passport...
     
  5. warneagle

    warneagle Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    441
    Likes Received:
    186
    Location:
    Silver Spring, MD
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    Twitter reports of possible tornado damage in Wilkes-Barre, PA.
     
  6. StormStalker

    StormStalker Moderator
    Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    105
    Likes Received:
    42
    Location:
    Tuscumbia, AL
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer, Storm Mapping User
    The damage up there looks pretty bad.
     
  7. warneagle

    warneagle Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    441
    Likes Received:
    186
    Location:
    Silver Spring, MD
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    Might be worth watching northern North Dakota and southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba tonight if the storm mode doesn't get too junky before the nocturnal LLJ kicks in.
     
  8. warneagle

    warneagle Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    441
    Likes Received:
    186
    Location:
    Silver Spring, MD
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    Upgraded to a hail-driven moderate. 10% hatched tor right along the border too.

    Mod-eh-rate risk.
     
  9. FelipeFreitas

    FelipeFreitas Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2018
    Messages:
    1
    Likes Received:
    7
    Location:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brazil
    Tornado damages were reported in several Brazilian cities on Tuesday (12). Most tornadoes occurred at night and affected rural areas. At least two people were killed and dozens injured. There was a tornado in neighboring Argentina as well.

    Cities that were damaged:
    [​IMG]





    thrown to about 100 meters
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    GFSLOL, Austin Dawg, WesL and 4 others like this.
  10. WesL

    WesL Administrator
    Staff Member Administrator PerryW Project Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,185
    Likes Received:
    645
    Location:
    Huntsville, AL
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer, Storm Mapping User
    @FelipeFreitas Welcome to TalkWeather! I think we often forget that tornadoes happen in other parts of the world so thanks for sharing the info and pictures. How common are tornadoes in Brazil?
     
    JayF likes this.
  11. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    347
    Likes Received:
    83
    Location:
    Wedowee, AL
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    I just looked at the GFS, NAM, and EURO, and all appear to be stronger, and deeper than originally thought with a shortwave trough from Thursday into Saturday. If it holds we may get a decent severe weather threat out of this system.
     
  12. warneagle

    warneagle Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    441
    Likes Received:
    186
    Location:
    Silver Spring, MD
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    That storm near Limon, CO. Wow.
     
  13. KoD

    KoD Member
    TW Supporter PerryW Project Supporter Archives Volunteer

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2017
    Messages:
    444
    Likes Received:
    173
    Location:
    Huntsville, AL
    Seeing some 80dbz returns. Quite the hailstorms I bet
     
  14. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    347
    Likes Received:
    83
    Location:
    Wedowee, AL
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    The SPC is already warning of an upgrade to a slight risk for Friday. I think there could even be a need for an enhanced when small scale features get identified. I’m getting pretty excited.
     
  15. warneagle

    warneagle Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2017
    Messages:
    441
    Likes Received:
    186
    Location:
    Silver Spring, MD
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    You know it's been bad when we're excited about a possible enhanced risk in late June.
     
  16. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    347
    Likes Received:
    83
    Location:
    Wedowee, AL
    Special Affiliations:
    SKYWARN® Volunteer
    Yes, it’s been a poor season, but I would be excited about an enhanced anytime of the year, and especially in late June. It’s also a threat that really hasn’t been that impressive until recently so it’s pretty exciting to see a higher threat potential suddenly show up within a few days.
     
  17. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
    Staff Member Administrator Technical Admin

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2017
    Messages:
    363
    Likes Received:
    76
    Location:
    Hartselle, al
    GFS has the more severe storms coming through Saturday Morning. Am I reading that correctly?
     
  18. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
    Staff Member Administrator Technical Admin

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2017
    Messages:
    363
    Likes Received:
    76
    Location:
    Hartselle, al
    And then the next run they are more inline with the NAM. LOL
     

Users Who Have Read This Thread (Total: 56)

  1. Taylor Campbell
  2. Jacob
  3. rolltide_130
  4. akt1985
  5. KoD
  6. barcncpt44
  7. Kory
  8. kivey2969
  9. Bamamuscle
  10. MichelleH
  11. Argus
  12. MattW
  13. SilentShadow87
  14. gangstonc
  15. StormStalker
  16. KG4KBU
  17. ghost
  18. tennessee storm chaser
  19. CheeselandSkies
  20. JayF
  21. Equus
  22. delaypd
  23. warneagle
  24. Fred Gossage
  25. Alan
  26. Austin Dawg
  27. amanda90
  28. Seusa
  29. southmdwatcher
  30. ARCC
  31. gaikkeb
  32. darkpinesunderwater
  33. Chris3024
  34. Xenesthis
  35. David in SW Blount
  36. Shea234
  37. Summer Girl
  38. Jason Ledbetter
  39. bwalk
  40. xJownage
  41. gjack
  42. maroonedinhsv
  43. Kolle
  44. thundersnow
  45. TileDude
  46. Xtreme Weather
  47. fivepoint1
  48. CodyS
  49. samuel557
  50. BayouWeatherGeek
  51. Peter Griffin
  52. FelipeFreitas
  53. WesL
  54. GFSLOL
  55. Hailey
  56. peckrob

Share This Page