Severe Weather 2018

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by Taylor Campbell, Jan 23, 2018.

?

This severe weather season will be?

Poll closed Mar 1, 2018.
  1. Above Average

    7 vote(s)
    31.8%
  2. Average

    13 vote(s)
    59.1%
  3. Below Average

    2 vote(s)
    9.1%
  1. tennessee storm chaser

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    Can add parts Tennessee also western half lot of model watching this week
     
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  2. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    If there is instability, wow.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Fred

    Fred Member

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    Beat me to it. That is a really nasty look.
     
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  4. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    The Euro is not quite the threat the GFS is showing, but instability and low level moisture is much more bullish .
     
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  5. SilentShadow87

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    I know TW is mostly southeastern, but the GFS shows a pretty favorable setup for supercells in western Texas next Friday...
     
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  6. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    Both GFS and Euro are coming into agreement that the synoptics of the system next weekend could be a potent system. The Euro is about a day slower than the GFS. Instability at this point is still low.
     
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  7. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    Doesn't the GFS usually undercook the thermos in the long range?
     
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  8. tennessee storm chaser

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    Very much indeed ....
     
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  9. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    15% area introduced in the plains for Day 7 (Friday):

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    12z GFS has trended toward the Euro in terms of slowing the system down. This let's low level moisture climb more than previous runs. Still looks like a very dangerous setup if instability continues to increase.
     
  11. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Is it looking like the mid-south is in play for this next system?
     
  12. tennessee storm chaser

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    depending if we can established a healthy warm sector... pull far enough north...slower system would help....
     
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  13. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Looks like the EURO is looking nasty next Sunday.
     
  14. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    What was a low pressure around Missouri a few days ago is now a Miller A. Haha. Why can't this happen in winter.
     
  15. MichelleH

    MichelleH Member

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    What's the latest on this coming weekend's system?
     
  16. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Looks like a lot of rain again, but I don't see a severe threat as of now. It has trended significantly away from that.
     
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  17. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    Things just didn't really line up with this pattern in the manner they seemed to be back at the beginning of the month. We had multiple systems come through, but they just didn't line up quite right. There's still time for a larger scale event to take place but that window is shrinking before the pattern shifts out to the plains (And even there its a little iffy at the moment)

    Really shows how difficult it is to get a big outbreak pattern. So many things have to line up just right, and that hasn't happened really at all ever since 2014.
     
  18. tennessee storm chaser

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    Yeah. As a big severe wx freak.... this pattern blows ....
     
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  19. Xtreme Weather

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    University of Alabama severe weather survey... Takes about 10 minutes or so

    https://universityofalabama.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_eDqc92CgvYOyPuR
     
  20. tennessee storm chaser

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    Wouldn’t say we’re seeing a shrinking window of opportunity for us here in Dixie midsouth region ... this pattern we been stuck could delay things , causing run behind... think late this month into better part may .. we going have some opportunity for a large scale severe event here... before things migrate to the plains late may june....
     

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