Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by Taylor Campbell, Jan 23, 2018.
Can add parts Tennessee also western half lot of model watching this week
If there is instability, wow.
Beat me to it. That is a really nasty look.
The Euro is not quite the threat the GFS is showing, but instability and low level moisture is much more bullish .
I know TW is mostly southeastern, but the GFS shows a pretty favorable setup for supercells in western Texas next Friday...
Both GFS and Euro are coming into agreement that the synoptics of the system next weekend could be a potent system. The Euro is about a day slower than the GFS. Instability at this point is still low.
Doesn't the GFS usually undercook the thermos in the long range?
Very much indeed ....
15% area introduced in the plains for Day 7 (Friday):
12z GFS has trended toward the Euro in terms of slowing the system down. This let's low level moisture climb more than previous runs. Still looks like a very dangerous setup if instability continues to increase.
Is it looking like the mid-south is in play for this next system?
depending if we can established a healthy warm sector... pull far enough north...slower system would help....
Looks like the EURO is looking nasty next Sunday.
What was a low pressure around Missouri a few days ago is now a Miller A. Haha. Why can't this happen in winter.
What's the latest on this coming weekend's system?
Looks like a lot of rain again, but I don't see a severe threat as of now. It has trended significantly away from that.
Things just didn't really line up with this pattern in the manner they seemed to be back at the beginning of the month. We had multiple systems come through, but they just didn't line up quite right. There's still time for a larger scale event to take place but that window is shrinking before the pattern shifts out to the plains (And even there its a little iffy at the moment)
Really shows how difficult it is to get a big outbreak pattern. So many things have to line up just right, and that hasn't happened really at all ever since 2014.
Yeah. As a big severe wx freak.... this pattern blows ....
University of Alabama severe weather survey... Takes about 10 minutes or so
Wouldn’t say we’re seeing a shrinking window of opportunity for us here in Dixie midsouth region ... this pattern we been stuck could delay things , causing run behind... think late this month into better part may .. we going have some opportunity for a large scale severe event here... before things migrate to the plains late may june....