Severe Weather 2018

[warneagle]

Up to an enhanced risk today for part of Texas, 30% hatched hail.

Also the most recent outlook describes the low-level hodographs as "wretched". That's pretty funny.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Yeah, weakening surface low spells trouble for tornado prospects. Should be a decent equipment shakedown chase of some hailers for anyone local.

 

[rolltide_130]

Well then..

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Well then..

Doesn’t surprise me.... blah...was looking forward to a active start of severe in April ... mite have to wait later in April appears unless models are lost....

 

[rolltide_130]

Doesn’t surprise me.... blah...was looking forward to a active start of severe in April ... mite have to wait later in April appears unless models are lost....

This is the stage being set for a potentially active pattern.. not a dormant one lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

This is the stage being set for a potentially active pattern.. not a dormant one lol

Well it’s nw flow at that stage .... but trough moves out east. Looks to be setting up nice sw flow. Then we maybe getting into business

 

[jmills]

Well it’s nw flow at that stage .... but trough moves out east. Looks to be setting up nice sw flow. Then we maybe getting into business

The thing to see in that picture (as far as I know) is the fact that there is wave after wave over the Pacific with little to no blocking to get in their way. It's a classic pattern for an active rest of the spring.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Many GFS ensembles going bonkers beginning late next week into the next.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Many GFS ensembles going bonkers beginning late next week into the next.

April 6&7 have had their fair share of rough days. The Gallatin Tornado and huge hail in North Alabama occurred on April 6th I believe.

 

[Mike S]

April 6&7 have had their fair share of rough days. The Gallatin Tornado and huge hail in North Alabama occurred on April 6th I believe.

I got a new roof out of that one!

 

[jmills]

Just going to leave this here.

 

[rolltide_130]

Just going to leave this here.

View attachment 570

That.. that is trouble brewing.. oh my.

 

[Weatherphreak]

That.. that is trouble brewing.. oh my.

Tell me if I’m reading this map correctly. Low pressure in the Great Lakes, Pac NW digging in across the Sierras, and another system over the aluetian islands? Which one spells trouble?

 

[jmills]

Tell me if I’m reading this map correctly. Low pressure in the Great Lakes, Pac NW digging in across the Sierras, and another system over the aluetian islands? Which one spells trouble?

The jet digging into California would be a potential downstream threat.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The EURO, UKMET, and CMC are now showing big signals. A confidence booster that next week, and the week after holds potential for several severe threats, and some that could be fairly significant.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The first threat looks to be Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week, and it looks to cover a very large area.

 

[rolltide_130]

This is a frankly scary look in the extended range.. pattern recognition is going absolutely nuclear for a potentially significant threat in the D 11-15 range for somewhere in the US, so this will need to be watched closely..

 

[ARCC]

This is a frankly scary look in the extended range.. pattern recognition is going absolutely nuclear for a potentially significant threat in the D 11-15 range for somewhere in the US, so this will need to be watched closely..

To be honest, that isn't a scary look to me at all, at least at this point. Gonna be very hard to see ample moisture return for anyone with that full latitude trough in place. For severe weather, the earlier GFS needs to be right with the Atlantic ridge showing back up in the far extended.

 

[Fred Gossage]

To be honest, that isn't a scary look to me at all, at least at this point. Gonna be very hard to see ample moisture return for anyone with that full latitude trough in place. For severe weather, the earlier GFS needs to be right with the Atlantic ridge showing back up in the far extended.

Tell that to both 1932 and 1974. Both of them featured a CONUS-wide large scale trough leading up to those outbreaks.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

look no further than last night 0z euro day 10 240hr... frame... know thats a beginning of a very viotale look down the road for dixie and midsouth regions... ample deep moisture return out ahead of that developing deep trough...