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I think there's a major tendency to place the highest risk too far N and W in Dixie events. Convection always seems to cut off that part, or it initiates late. Parameters may be maxed there, but that doesn't always translate to maximum storm coverage.
We have a confirmed EF2 already and Columbus will almost certainly be EF2 (or 3) also, so that's multiple significant tornadoes... ENH would've certainly covered it but there have been worse underperformers. That said, much of the MDT barely even saw rain.
That's a great idea! I'll be sure to do this for the next big weather threadMaybe you could start a post mordem thread specifically for this event and have that discussion. Hopefully others will chime in. I won't because I'd have nothing to add but if there is enough participation it will be an interesting and educational read.
If it works out then maybe it can become a thing for major weather events here.
I’d be interested to see a comparison of this with the 3/19/18 event (or non-event as it were) because the exact same thing happened in that case—a big blob of messy convection formed right at the start of the window for the event and we never got the discrete supercells despite incredibly strong low-level wind fields. I wonder if that might have been a case of the same sort of problem?I actually did some post-event analysis, and in the vicinity of the Columbus and Burnsville area, wind fields were NOT an issue. In fact, they were better than modeled with slightly lower anvil flow and critical angles in the 60-70 degree range. Also, sfc winds were more backed in this region.
What WAS an issue further west was underforecasted STJ influence, which has been a common theme the last few years, particularly when we combine the background PDO state and El Nino. This is what led to more southerly mid-level flow in our more western soundings, and the influence fired off a big messy wad of convection ahead of schedule by about two hours. It managed to clean out somewhat as it got to E MS and produce a fairly strong event still, but not quite the discrete supercell activity some models had projected.
If it wasn't for this STJ influence, our wind fields would have been pristine across the whole sector, the EML would have been stronger and storm mode would have been discrete. With the very high thermos for February, the STJ likely prevented a high-end outbreak and kept it a little more regional.
Put this in April where STJ influence dies down some, and this same trough likely produces more than one violent tornado..
I’d be interested to see a comparison of this with the 3/19/18 event (or non-event as it were) because the exact same thing happened in that case—a big blob of messy convection formed right at the start of the window for the event and we never got the discrete supercells despite incredibly strong low-level wind fields. I wonder if that might have been a case of the same sort of problem?
Good work. The only way to get better is by learning from the past. So many people just want to jump to the next potential threat without trying to understand what went right/wrong with the last system. Anybody can overhype a threat (Reed Timmer).I actually did some post-event analysis, and in the vicinity of the Columbus and Burnsville area, wind fields were NOT an issue. In fact, they were better than modeled with slightly lower anvil flow and critical angles in the 60-70 degree range. Also, sfc winds were more backed in this region.
What WAS an issue further west was underforecasted STJ influence, which has been a common theme the last few years, particularly when we combine the background PDO state and El Nino. This is what led to more southerly mid-level flow in our more western soundings, and the influence fired off a big messy wad of convection ahead of schedule by about two hours. It managed to clean out somewhat as it got to E MS and produce a fairly strong event still, but not quite the discrete supercell activity some models had projected.
If it wasn't for this STJ influence, our wind fields would have been pristine across the whole sector, the EML would have been stronger and storm mode would have been discrete. With the very high thermos for February, the STJ likely prevented a high-end outbreak and kept it a little more regional.
Put this in April where STJ influence dies down some, and this same trough likely produces more than one violent tornado..
April 24, 2010 shows you can still get an outbreak with long track/violent tornadoes with subtropical jet disturbance. If I remember correctly, there was a lot of convection prior to the afternoon tornadoes in AL.I actually did some post-event analysis, and in the vicinity of the Columbus and Burnsville area, wind fields were NOT an issue. In fact, they were better than modeled with slightly lower anvil flow and critical angles in the 60-70 degree range. Also, sfc winds were more backed in this region.
What WAS an issue further west was underforecasted STJ influence, which has been a common theme the last few years, particularly when we combine the background PDO state and El Nino. This is what led to more southerly mid-level flow in our more western soundings, and the influence fired off a big messy wad of convection ahead of schedule by about two hours. It managed to clean out somewhat as it got to E MS and produce a fairly strong event still, but not quite the discrete supercell activity some models had projected.
If it wasn't for this STJ influence, our wind fields would have been pristine across the whole sector, the EML would have been stronger and storm mode would have been discrete. With the very high thermos for February, the STJ likely prevented a high-end outbreak and kept it a little more regional.
Put this in April where STJ influence dies down some, and this same trough likely produces more than one violent tornado..
April 24, 2010 shows you can still get an outbreak with long track/violent tornadoes with subtropical jet disturbance. If I remember correctly, there was a lot of convection prior to the afternoon tornadoes in AL.
Yeah I think you can easily talk about Yazoo City and Hackleburg in the same breath. Apparently the Yazoo City tornado had one of the most impressive radar signatures and rotational energy ever seen, and some of the tree and vegetation damage was absolutely insane. Honestly it's lucky that a good two thirds of its path was through forests. Put it through a town while it was at peak strength and I'm guessing the death toll would probably have at least tripled.The Yazoo City tornado that day was practically in a class by itself at the time. I believe its DPI (Destruction Potential Index, some algorithm combining intensity and path length/width) was greater than that of some entire outbreaks. The lead-up to that day also had some of the most ominously-worded outlooks and forecast discussions I'd ever seen. Then came a year and three days later....