Severe Potential 6/22-6/23

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#1
Didn't think I'd be making one of these in late June, but 2018 has pretty much thrown climatology out the window so why not.

A rather unusual system for this time of year will be making its way across the south, with a cutoff low over IL/IN and a trough with some impressive upper level flow values for June moving through Dixie.



There may be a tornado threat with this as well. Directional shear looks surprisingly good for this time of year and speed shear, while low, is in the range of values you would expect for a June severe setup. This may lend a chance to a brief, lower end tornado threat with any organized storms that can develop Friday afternoon and evening.

 

KoD

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#5

Looks like we have a slight risk of double bananas tomorrow per the SPC. I wonder if the lapse rates will ripen more than what has been forecasted.
 
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#6
Not feeling this one like I was yesterday looking at new data. Looks like early/midday junk convection is likely. That will likely kill (or at least severely damper) the severe threat.

NAM is all in (as usual) but 3km NAM has a borderline non-event with just general thunder and maybe isolated marginal wind and hail reports. The general theme this year has been go with whatever could cause the event to downtrend, so I'm going to stick with that for now unless new data changes things.
 
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#7
I think the biggest thing of note will be the MCS that looks like it will roll through between Friday evening/Saturday morning. This is a pretty classic set up for one...
 

JayF

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#8
I love the statement in the Area Forecast Discussion:

"What happens Friday is anyone's guess at this point as model
consistency is slim to none."
 
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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
#10
Really hoping for a nice widespread rainfall in Tuscaloosa from this system. After a pretty wet May being capped off by Alberto, we've managed just under 1" through 3 weeks of June. Storms have missed us in all directions for the past week...
 

WesL

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#20
Welcome to Madison County. Convinced our new minor league baseball team should be the N. Alabama Twisters.


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