Severe Potential 6/22-6/23

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by rolltide_130, Jun 20, 2018.

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  1. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    Didn't think I'd be making one of these in late June, but 2018 has pretty much thrown climatology out the window so why not.

    A rather unusual system for this time of year will be making its way across the south, with a cutoff low over IL/IN and a trough with some impressive upper level flow values for June moving through Dixie.

    [​IMG]

    There may be a tornado threat with this as well. Directional shear looks surprisingly good for this time of year and speed shear, while low, is in the range of values you would expect for a June severe setup. This may lend a chance to a brief, lower end tornado threat with any organized storms that can develop Friday afternoon and evening.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    I was looking at that as well. GFS has it slower coming through Saturday Morning.
     
  3. Taylor Campbell

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    Please pin this to the top. This is a growing threat.
     
  4. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    NAM showing a multiple-day threat and very much a non-zero tornado threat as well especially just to our west

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  5. KoD

    KoD Member
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    [​IMG]
    Looks like we have a slight risk of double bananas tomorrow per the SPC. I wonder if the lapse rates will ripen more than what has been forecasted.
     
  6. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    Not feeling this one like I was yesterday looking at new data. Looks like early/midday junk convection is likely. That will likely kill (or at least severely damper) the severe threat.

    NAM is all in (as usual) but 3km NAM has a borderline non-event with just general thunder and maybe isolated marginal wind and hail reports. The general theme this year has been go with whatever could cause the event to downtrend, so I'm going to stick with that for now unless new data changes things.
     
  7. Kory

    Kory Member

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    I think the biggest thing of note will be the MCS that looks like it will roll through between Friday evening/Saturday morning. This is a pretty classic set up for one...
     
  8. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    I love the statement in the Area Forecast Discussion:

    "What happens Friday is anyone's guess at this point as model
    consistency is slim to none."
     
  9. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    The models were better in 2004 I swear..
     
  10. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Really hoping for a nice widespread rainfall in Tuscaloosa from this system. After a pretty wet May being capped off by Alberto, we've managed just under 1" through 3 weeks of June. Storms have missed us in all directions for the past week...
     
  11. KoD

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    Sure is a pretty system from satellite
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Tornado warning SW of Jonesboro, AR.
     
  13. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Memphis CWA.
     
  14. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    Both WRF actually look pretty decent for tomorrow afternoon.
     
  15. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Video of LIghtning I took last night.

     
  16. Kory

    Kory Member

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    LOL looks like this is gonna split Tuscaloosa. Can't make this up.
     
  17. Bamamuscle

    Bamamuscle Member

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    Ummm tornado warning for Madison County?! WTH?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  18. ARCC

    ARCC Member

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    Beautiful supercell. Don't see many with that type of presentation this late.
     
  19. GymieRustle

    GymieRustle Member

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    Structure on the Madison Co. cell is impressive...is it spring?
     
  20. WesL

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    Welcome to Madison County. Convinced our new minor league baseball team should be the N. Alabama Twisters.


    upload_2018-6-22_12-57-40.png

     
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