Potential Severe Weather Threat May 1 - 4 2018

JayF

Technical Administrator
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Technical Admin
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416
Location
Hartselle, al
#4
Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma are going to really need to be watching the storm potential for Tuesday and Wednesday next week if the models are correct.
 
Messages
171
Location
Boaz,AL
#5
SPC

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

On Wednesday/D5
the greatest threat will be from the low
southward along the dryline, from KS into OK, where a few tornadic
supercells are expected, along with very large hail supported by
steep lapse rates aloft and robust boundary layer moisture. Some
tornadoes may be strong, although forecast hodographs do vary among
the models.
 
Messages
533
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
#6
Tomorrow doesn't look too exciting. Most of the warm sector is capped but there might be a narrow band right along the dry line in the Panhandle where a couple of storms can get going (plus whatever junky stuff up in Nebraska), and then we can turn on the chaser map and watch them converge like moths to a flame.
 

South AL Wx

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Meteorologist
Messages
101
Location
Montgomery, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
#8
I was just looking at the SPC Day 2 Outlook, and noticed a new "Maximum Risk by Hazard" table at the bottom of the outlook. Evidently this was recently added by SPC to the text section of all Day 2 Outlooks. Here is an example for tomorrow from http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html:

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced

For more information on the change, see: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn18-31spc_text_productaaa.htm
 
Messages
112
Location
Riverside, Ohio
#10
Lots of excitement surrounding Wednesday's potential event, but i'm tempering my expectations. In a nutshell, this is shaping up to be one of those events where while the "big picture" looks impressive, but the best kinematics likely won't arrive until well after convective initiation has taken place. This means we will probably see a slow uptick in tornado potential throughout the day, potentially after storm mode starts to grow upscale and things go downhill. Anyone remember May 18 of last year? Yeah.

I prefer setups in which explosive supercell development occurs in a very high-CAPE environment, during the window of absolute best possible kinematic support, usually leading to a "string of pearls" of tornadic supercells. Anyone expecting that kind of thing for Wednesday may be disappointed. I could be totally wrong and we witness a full fledged outbreak, but I feel we'll see mostly see hail and wind producers throughout the day, before the potential for a handful of tornadoes (maybe a significant one or two) peaks around sunset.
 
Messages
533
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
#11
You know the day has busted when the chasers are this bored.


I guess if it were me I would just turn it into a birding trip.
 
Last edited:
Messages
121
Location
jackson tennessee
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
#12
Lots of excitement surrounding Wednesday's potential event, but i'm tempering my expectations. In a nutshell, this is shaping up to be one of those events where while the "big picture" looks impressive, but the best kinematics likely won't arrive until well after convective initiation has taken place. This means we will probably see a slow uptick in tornado potential throughout the day, potentially after storm mode starts to grow upscale and things go downhill. Anyone remember May 18 of last year? Yeah.

I prefer setups in which explosive supercell development occurs in a very high-CAPE environment, during the window of absolute best possible kinematic support, usually leading to a "string of pearls" of tornadic supercells. Anyone expecting that kind of thing for Wednesday may be disappointed. I could be totally wrong and we witness a full fledged outbreak, but I feel we'll see mostly see hail and wind producers throughout the day, before the potential for a handful of tornadoes (maybe a significant one or two) peaks around sunset.
models starting to pick up a pretty good cap also... could be a player. something to watch
 
Messages
535
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Storm Mapping User
#13
Lots of excitement surrounding Wednesday's potential event, but i'm tempering my expectations. In a nutshell, this is shaping up to be one of those events where while the "big picture" looks impressive, but the best kinematics likely won't arrive until well after convective initiation has taken place. This means we will probably see a slow uptick in tornado potential throughout the day, potentially after storm mode starts to grow upscale and things go downhill. Anyone remember May 18 of last year? Yeah.

I prefer setups in which explosive supercell development occurs in a very high-CAPE environment, during the window of absolute best possible kinematic support, usually leading to a "string of pearls" of tornadic supercells. Anyone expecting that kind of thing for Wednesday may be disappointed. I could be totally wrong and we witness a full fledged outbreak, but I feel we'll see mostly see hail and wind producers throughout the day, before the potential for a handful of tornadoes (maybe a significant one or two) peaks around sunset.
Maybe further north, but across OK I don't see this as a case where storms will fire too early and ruin everything. If anything, it wouldn't surprise me to not see storms initiate period until late in the afternoon to starting to get close to sunset.
 
Messages
63
Location
North Prattville, Al
#17
At 4:45pm, a line of semi-discreet cells have fired and are well in progress. Line of storms runs from central Kansas to southeastern Nebraska.

2 Tornado warnings right now near Aurora & Doniphan, Nebraska, per National Weather Service Hastings NE. Doniphan tornado is confirmed by NWS. Cells appear to be becoming a little less discreet in last 15 minutes as they move farther E/NE.
 

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