Potential Severe Weather Threat May 1 - 4 2018

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by JayF, Apr 26, 2018.

  1. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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  2. warneagle

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    Alright, SPC, you have my attention.
     
  3. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Time to start looking at models to see what dynamics are in play.
     
  4. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma are going to really need to be watching the storm potential for Tuesday and Wednesday next week if the models are correct.
     
  5. Daryl

    Daryl Member

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    SPC

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

    On Wednesday/D5
    the greatest threat will be from the low
    southward along the dryline, from KS into OK, where a few tornadic
    supercells are expected, along with very large hail supported by
    steep lapse rates aloft and robust boundary layer moisture. Some
    tornadoes may be strong, although forecast hodographs do vary among
    the models.
     
  6. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    Tomorrow doesn't look too exciting. Most of the warm sector is capped but there might be a narrow band right along the dry line in the Panhandle where a couple of storms can get going (plus whatever junky stuff up in Nebraska), and then we can turn on the chaser map and watch them converge like moths to a flame.
     
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  7. bwalk

    bwalk Member

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    Wednesday has been targeted as the big day but Reed Timmer says Tuesday, 5/1/18, may get things rolling, especially in Kansas.

    upload_2018-4-30_12-40-59.png
     
  8. South AL Wx

    South AL Wx Member
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    I was just looking at the SPC Day 2 Outlook, and noticed a new "Maximum Risk by Hazard" table at the bottom of the outlook. Evidently this was recently added by SPC to the text section of all Day 2 Outlooks. Here is an example for tomorrow from http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html:

    ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
    Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced
    Wind: 30% - Enhanced
    Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced

    For more information on the change, see: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn18-31spc_text_productaaa.htm
     
  9. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    Yeah I noticed that too. It's convenient.
     
  10. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    Lots of excitement surrounding Wednesday's potential event, but i'm tempering my expectations. In a nutshell, this is shaping up to be one of those events where while the "big picture" looks impressive, but the best kinematics likely won't arrive until well after convective initiation has taken place. This means we will probably see a slow uptick in tornado potential throughout the day, potentially after storm mode starts to grow upscale and things go downhill. Anyone remember May 18 of last year? Yeah.

    I prefer setups in which explosive supercell development occurs in a very high-CAPE environment, during the window of absolute best possible kinematic support, usually leading to a "string of pearls" of tornadic supercells. Anyone expecting that kind of thing for Wednesday may be disappointed. I could be totally wrong and we witness a full fledged outbreak, but I feel we'll see mostly see hail and wind producers throughout the day, before the potential for a handful of tornadoes (maybe a significant one or two) peaks around sunset.
     
  11. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    You know the day has busted when the chasers are this bored.



    I guess if it were me I would just turn it into a birding trip.
     
    #11 warneagle, Apr 30, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2018
  12. tennessee storm chaser

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    models starting to pick up a pretty good cap also... could be a player. something to watch
     
  13. rolltide_130

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    Maybe further north, but across OK I don't see this as a case where storms will fire too early and ruin everything. If anything, it wouldn't surprise me to not see storms initiate period until late in the afternoon to starting to get close to sunset.
     
  14. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    Upgraded to hail-driven moderate risk
     
  15. warneagle

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    Day 2 upgraded to a wind-driven moderate as well.
     
  16. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    Tomorrow has gone Moderate as well.

    Edit: whoops, nice timing lol
     
  17. bwalk

    bwalk Member

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    At 4:45pm, a line of semi-discreet cells have fired and are well in progress. Line of storms runs from central Kansas to southeastern Nebraska.

    2 Tornado warnings right now near Aurora & Doniphan, Nebraska, per National Weather Service Hastings NE. Doniphan tornado is confirmed by NWS. Cells appear to be becoming a little less discreet in last 15 minutes as they move farther E/NE.
     
  18. SilentShadow87

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    Weak rain-wrapped tornado in Barton County, Kansas just now coming out of an evil-looking bat-wing cell.
    upload_2018-5-1_19-41-0.png
    Image: Aaron Jayjack via Severe Studios
     
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  19. Bama Ravens

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    Small moderate risk for tomorrow. Interesting.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. warneagle

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    WOW

     
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