Tropical Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert (NO THREAT TO LAND)

Taylor Campbell

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#1
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic
Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Taylor Campbell

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#3
This one definitely has my attention. Very healthy looking wave. Euro is unimpressed (when is it not) but the GFS/GEFS are all over it.
Last night we had all, but the EURO develop it in about 72 to 84 hours. That includes GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET. Also, I heard the majority of the EURO ensembles disagreed with last night's op run, and you have the 12z run of the EURO yesterday having it.
 

Tyler Penland

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#4
Last night we had all, but the EURO develop it in about 72 to 84 hours. That includes GFS, NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET. Also, I heard the majority of the EURO ensembles disagreed with last night's op run, and you have the 12z run of the EURO yesterday having it.
From what I saw the 0z EPS kills it into the eastern carribbean then redevelops in the Gulf with a bunch of Texas hits.

Can't get the map to pull up here at work or I'd share it.

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Taylor Campbell

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#7
A large and complex area of disturbed weather, associated with a
broad low pressure system, extends from about 400 miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual consolidation and development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move
toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
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#8
Last 5 GEFS runs for next Saturday evening 8/12 seem to show more of an agreement on a system being being tracked thru 9 days. Also seem to be hinting more in the last few runs that 90L may develop in the Western Gulf

 

Taylor Campbell

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#9
There was a shift south on the GFS tracks last night as you can see in the image posted above. EURO still doesn't do much with it. NAVGEM appears to be more in camp with the EURO. It is not as weak, but definitely weaker than the GFS, and CMC. The two also keep it further south, and have it hitting the islands.
 

Taylor Campbell

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#12
There continues to be less GFS ensembles showing a storm. The NAVGEM is as pathetic with the wave as the EURO is now.
 

Tyler Penland

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#13
There continues to be less GFS ensembles showing a storm. The NAVGEM is as pathetic with the wave as the EURO is now.
Yeah. I was hoping this would work out to clear the pattern out a bit for the eclipse but alas looks like we'll have to rely on the h southeast Ridge for that.

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Brax

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Atlanta, GA
#17
It's looking more lively on WV today... Looks like it may be feeding on Franklin in order to get more moist air around the center. If it can get rid of the dry air it's definitely over water that would be conducive to intensification.
 

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