Archive January 11-12 Winter Event (AL, TN, MS)

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by akt1985, Jan 6, 2018.

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  1. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    Brad Travis mentioned something about a possible winter storm next weekend across the South. Anyone seeing any signs of that? I'm supposed to travel to the D.C. area Friday.
     
  2. KoD

    KoD Member
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    There was a couple runs off the GFS flaunting some wintery weather but being both 140+ hrs out & GFS not consistent, held off on mentioning it. Euro shows a nice disturbance but it's got a different track with no secondary low off the GA coast like the GFS had. 18z GFS more in line with the euro & doesn't bring snow or ice to the TAG region. Confidence is low but there's a possibility.
     
  3. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Keep an eye on that ULL that models bring over the area late Friday into Saturday. Backside deformation band looks to change over to snow.
     
  4. KoD

    KoD Member
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    There is quite decent model agreement, I like the potential.
    If the GFS is right with the speed of the cold front, there is a good chance for accumulation for TN & N AL. If the euro is right, a large area could see a nice dusting still.
    NAM looks the best though for a weenie!

    [​IMG]
     
    #4 KoD, Jan 9, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2018
  5. KoD

    KoD Member
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    Warm nose depicted on NAM sounding brings HSV close to sleet & freezing rain territory. Still plenty of time to see a warm trend, cold trend, low disappearing trend, speed trend up, down, etc...

    [​IMG]
     
  6. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    FWIW, CAL from UAH is not impressed AT ALL with this setup. His thinking is this is a very poor setup for snow even if the models show accumulation.
     
  7. Kory

    Kory Member

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    The trend to keep the trough open instead of closing it off is lowering significant wintry precipitation chances for AL. I do still think there will be a small changeover on the backside, but it’s significantly less of a snow event it once was showing up as.
     
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  8. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    HUN pulled the trigger with a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow (Friday)

    342 am CST Thu Jan 11 2018

    ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 8 am Friday to midnight
    CST Friday night...

    * what... a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow expected. The ice
    will result in difficult travel conditions, including during the
    morning commute on Friday. Total snow and sleet accumulations
    around one half an inch and ice accumulations of a trace to
    around one tenth of an inch are expected.

    * Where... Lincoln, Moore and Franklin counties in Tennessee.
    Lauderdale, Limestone, Madison and Jackson counties in Alabama.

    * When... from 8 am Friday to midnight CST Friday night.

    * Additional details... changeover from rain to wintry
    precipitation will occur from west to east Friday morning to
    Friday afternoon and end as light snow late Friday night into
    Saturday morning.

    Precautionary/preparedness actions...

    A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
    freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
    slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
    driving. The latest Road conditions for the state you are calling
    from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
     
  9. KoD

    KoD Member
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    Absolutely, this would be magnificent if it were a Dixie alley cut-off low, but that's looking more unlikely every run.
     
  10. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    I’ll be traveling to Maryland tomorrow. It should be mostly rain along I-81. I don’t think the precipitation is supposed to change over in East Tennessee until sunset.
     
  11. KoD

    KoD Member
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    Latest model runs have shown a dry slot keeping most of north central/east AL from seeing much wintry precipitation (sleet, freezing rain, snow). As is often the case, I think we'll see the occasional wave of flurries flow through, which may give some of us a nice dusting.
     
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  12. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    I’ve been tuned in to Fox 13 in Memphis. No major reports of issues in Memphis proper but reports of bridges in rural N. Mississippi icing up.
     
  13. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Friend in Tuscumbia reports snow is coming down.
     
  14. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Ground is covered at Graceland -

     
  15. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    So far the only "event" I've seen was a brief burst of snow in the Gate 8 of Redstone Arsenal just before noon.
     
  16. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    4 Inches of snow being reported in Memphis.

     
  17. KoD

    KoD Member
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    Not sure how far east the deformation band will travel but my thinking is that it'll likely dimish around limestone, but may still produce decent flurries through Marshal county. Travelers beware of black ice, it's still wet out there and the temperature is dipping below freezing rapidly. I'll be one of the unfortunate few who have to go to work in the morning :/
     
  18. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Luckily the wind is blowing and helping the road surfaces dry.
     
  19. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Coming down pretty fast and heavy here at TW HQ in Valhermoso Springs in Morgan, Co. Also seeing social media reports of snow in Arab.
     
  20. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    According to the post made to a trucker group this is mile marker 120 on I-40 in western Tennessee.

     

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