Hurricane Hurricane Michael

WesL

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,304
Location
Huntsville, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer, Storm Mapping User
#4
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 86.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

1538877981471.png
 

KoD

Member
TW Supporter
Archives Volunteer
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
539
Location
Huntsville, AL
#5
Projected to become a hurricane before landfall now. 06z GFS is a bit aggressive with development, shows pressure dropping to 986 in 30 hours, down to 960s in 48-60 hours out. I don't think that's likely but it could happen. There's still a good bit of wind sheer.
All global models appear to bring this to a hurricane regardless, and NHC estimates cat 1 at 75mph prior to landfall.
 

KoD

Member
TW Supporter
Archives Volunteer
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
539
Location
Huntsville, AL
#7
Up to 60MPH, NHC forecast putting it near 100mph and GFS still dropping pressure to 960s
 

WesL

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,304
Location
Huntsville, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer, Storm Mapping User
#8
Still moving that track to the east. Glad to see that for sure.


NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


1538969151355.png
 

Taylor Campbell

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
417
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
#12
An interesting thing to watch for occurs overnight tonight, and that’s to see how much it accelerates, and if it accelerates more northwest. If it’s moving pretty quickly, and going more northwest I’d look for models to adjust back west more in line with the GFS. I want this to come to my backyard so I’m hoping for this tonight.
 
Messages
160
Location
Moody, AL
#14
Looks like the official forecast calls for a Cat 3 at landfall near PCB. This might end up being an Opal part two (Opal was a little further west than the current forecast tho)
 

WesL

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,304
Location
Huntsville, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer, Storm Mapping User
#15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES




1539010976219.png
 

Evan

Member
Messages
797
Location
McCalla, AL
#16
Looks like the official forecast calls for a Cat 3 at landfall near PCB. This might end up being an Opal part two (Opal was a little further west than the current forecast tho)
Agreed although I think Michael has started out as a larger storm than Opal was.

Unfortunately, I think a shift back west for the NHC track is very possible. How much further west will depend on several factors, but I think a number of the models were a bit too far east in recent runs.

I'd be surprised to see Michael end up west of Pensacola, but a hit somewhere around Navarre to Miramar is my current thinking.
 

KoD

Member
TW Supporter
Archives Volunteer
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
539
Location
Huntsville, AL
#18
Michael is currently projected to be a major hurricane by landfall. I'd be concerned if I was a coastline banana stand right about now.
 
Messages
535
Location
Harvest, Alabama
Special Affiliations
Storm Mapping User
#19
Agreed although I think Michael has started out as a larger storm than Opal was.

Unfortunately, I think a shift back west for the NHC track is very possible. How much further west will depend on several factors, but I think a number of the models were a bit too far east in recent runs.

I'd be surprised to see Michael end up west of Pensacola, but a hit somewhere around Navarre to Miramar is my current thinking.
Was on vacation for a week right along 30-A back in July and was initially planning a short fall break trip as well before I had to cancel for other reasons. Looks like the eye could be passing right over where I stayed. Wish I could set up some cameras there.
 

Blountwolf

Member
TW Supporter
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
91
Location
Blount Springs
#20
It has fuel to work with. Unless something unexpected happens, this is going to be one very expensive and damaging storm.
Depth 26C Isotherm: 2018280god26.png
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 1)

Top