Archive Historic Harvey (Tropical Depression)

[akt1985]

It looks like Harvey will make landfall a little north of where Celia made landfall in 1970. Where is Harvey's forecasted landfall in relation to where Carla made landfall in 1961?

 

[TWBot]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 252356
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN PORT
ARANSAS AND PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 96.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should already be
complete.

Interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located by
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.8
North, longitude 96.8 West. Harvey is moving toward the northwest
near 8 mph (13 km/h), but its forward speed is expected to decrease
during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will
make landfall on the middle Texas coast during the next several
hours. Harvey is then likely to meander near or just inland of the
middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength
is likely before landfall. Weakening is then expected over the
weekend while the center moves inland over Texas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network station at
Aransas Pass recently reported sustained winds of 79 mph (128 km/h)
and a wind gust of 101 mph (163 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over
through southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Port O'Connor...9 to 13 ft
Elsewhere N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to
12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...3 to 5 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1 to 3 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring along the coast in
the Port Aransas area and should spread over other portions of the
hurricane warning area during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring in other portions of the hurricane
and tropical storm warning areas. Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least
Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday near the
middle and upper Texas coast into far southwestern Louisiana.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Continue reading...

 

[John Jaye]

Anyone else feel that based on local and national reporting that the residents of south Texas didn't take Harvey seriously?

I think the problem is that no one predicted this much strengthening. Most people I looked at said it might only be a strong TS at landfall. I really didn't understand that, based on all the warm water in that area of the gulf. I think it has caught everyone off guard.

 

[KoD]

Anyone else feel that based on local and national reporting that the residents of south Texas didn't take Harvey seriously?

Based on the amount of cars I've seen driving in front of Jim Cantore I think there's quite a few stubborn people. I even saw one of those ridiculously tall Mercedes company vans driving around.

 

[Daryl]

This is getting scant coverage by the cable news clowns.

 

[Mike S]

 

[vanni9283]

Oh dear!!!!


Sent from my iPhone using TalkWeather mobile app

Well, the Weather Channel just suggested the same thing about an hour and a half ago!

 

[KoD]

I was half expecting the balloon to run into a metal rod and deflate.

 

[Mike S]

Look at this thing.......

 

[TornadoFan]

A storm chaser crashed on Highway 35 near Lamar, TX and is requesting help.

 

[WesL]

[/QUOTE]

A storm chaser crashed on Highway 35 near Lamar, TX and is requesting help.

Any idea who?

 

[warneagle]

As usual, Mike Seidel gets stuck in the worst place. Poor dude.

 

[TornadoFan]

Mike Theiss.

 

[Mike S]

Mike Theiss.

Brett Adair is on his way to pick him up

 

[akt1985]

Southeast Texas might set the record for most consecutive hours under a tornado watch.

 

[Mike S]

Brett Adair is on his way to pick him up

Annnnnd he's got him!

 

[WesL]

San Jose Island which is uninhabited looks to be the landfall point.

 

[WesL]

Based on the amount of cars I've seen driving in front of Jim Cantore I think there's quite a few stubborn people. I even saw one of those ridiculously tall Mercedes company vans driving around.

I think the problem is that no one predicted this much strengthening. Most people I looked at said it might only be a strong TS at landfall. I really didn't understand that, based on all the warm water in that area of the gulf. I think it has caught everyone off guard.

I guess my issue comes with people almost always saying a tornado came without warning (which is almost always incorrect) and these people had at least 24 hours of good knowledge that a Cat 2 or 3 that is hundreds of miles wide was approaching with devastating 20 to 30 inches of rain over days and the estimates are that 40% stayed. I just don't understand.

 

[warneagle]

And I know the city of Corpus Christi put the city buses to work evacuating people. I think they've handled it well from the local government standpoint, and it seemed like the Texas government was reasonably proactive with the disaster/emergency declarations as well.

 

[WesL]

Report of a measured wind gust of 116mph at Port Aranasas.