Archive Former Major Hurricane Maria

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by JayF, Sep 14, 2017.

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  1. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
    Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
    Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
    development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely
    form early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across
    the tropical Atlantic.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    Invest96L.jpg
     
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  2. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
    a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands are
    showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
    conducive for additional development, and a tropical cyclone is
    likely to form during the next day or so while the system moves
    westward or west-northwestward around 20 mph. Interests in the
    Lesser Antilles and northeastern Caribbean should closely monitor
    the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
    could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles on Saturday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    This looks like the next long tracker we'll be talking about, most models have a hurricane for the Antilles by Monday/Tuesday
     
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  3. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    GFS/CMC both have this hitting NE Florida and Georgia around day 10

    Huge ridge builds in behind Jose for OTS and further north on the EC
     
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  4. Kory

    Kory Member

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    This will likely become Maria pretty soon and will effect the Leeward Islands and then Puerto Rico as a hurricane. Beyond this, a path toward the U.S. looks very likely given building ridging over the NE U.S. and incoming trough over the Central U.S. This year is not over just yet...but a lot regarding the upper air pattern along with island interaction still needs to be refined.
     
  5. Tyler Penland

    Tyler Penland Mountain Snow Miser
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    Jumped right into a 50MPH TS.

    ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARIA...
    ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.3N 52.6W
    ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
     
  6. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    I'm having Irma flashbacks
     
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  7. KoD

    KoD Member
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    Forecasted to become a hurricane before hitting the leeward islands then a major hurricane on approach to Puerto Rico. Not what anyone wants to hear right now.
     
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  8. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility,
    and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than
    currently forecast.

    They already forecast a 125 mph hit on Puerto Rico as it is :eek:
     
  9. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    This saddens me .... so tragic for the islands.

    Im reading that GFS has it on exact same path as Irma?

    Euro has ...?
     
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  10. Tyler Penland

    Tyler Penland Mountain Snow Miser
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    0z Euro runs it in around Myrtle Beach as a very strong storm. First run I've seen on the Euro that shows a landfall with little to no interaction with Jose since he dies off the coast.
     
  11. KoD

    KoD Member
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    Pressure took a drop to 982 this afternoon, now a hurricane. Path fairly unchanged
     
  12. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    NHC now forecasting a Cat 4 strike on Puerto Rico which would be the worst hurricane in decades there

    But SHIPS has a 34% chance of a Cat 5 before there, there's only been 1 Cat 5 landfall in Puerto Rico in 140 years of record, back in 1928!
     
  13. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
    800 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

    ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING...
    ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


    SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.6N 59.7W
    ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
    ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.
    Lucia.

    The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical
    Storm Warning for St. Maarten.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * Guadeloupe
    * Dominica
    * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
    * Martinique
    * St. Lucia

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Antigua and Barbuda
    * Saba and St. Eustatius
    * St. Maarten

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
    * U.S. Virgin Islands
    * British Virgin Islands
    * Saba and St. Eustatius
    * St. Maarten
    * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
    * Anguilla

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Barbados
    * St. Vincent and the Grenadines
     
  14. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    Boom goes the dynamite



    ...MARIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
    ...THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS
    AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...14.7N 60.1W
    ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF MARTINIQUE
    ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
     
  15. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    near Cat 5 forecast for Puerto Rico :confused:
     
  16. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    She be a Cat 4 now
     
  17. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    The dreaded pinhole eye!
     
  18. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    If I'm reading the models right(big if), the Euro has Maria curving back out to sea and the GFS has her skirting the outer banks.
     
  19. BayouWeatherGeek

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  20. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    Talk about rapid intensification!
     

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