Archive Former Major Hurricane Irma

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by JayF, Aug 29, 2017.

  1. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    MIAMI, Florida - NOAA's National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Tuesday, August 29, 2017, due to the presence of an area of low pressure that could become a Tropical Storm Jose later this week.


    The area of low pressure (red X above), dubbed Invest 93L, is located near the Cabo Verde Islands.

    Showers and thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L have become better organized since yesterday and will likely form into Tropical Depression 11 by Thursday over the eastern Atlantic.

    NHC forecasters say that Invest 93L will move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.

    Invest 93L has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next five days.

    http://news.brevardtimes.com/2017/08/2017-invest-93l-projected-path.html
     
  2. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    A little far out to be making that call.... IMO
     
  3. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Yeah no doubt. I figure 92L has a better chance of being Irma than 93L.
     
  4. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    If 93L develops, the GFS has a track similar to the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. The EURO has the storm going out to sea after hitting the Leeward Islands.
     
  5. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    Advisories likely to be initiated at 11am EDT

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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  7. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Looks like this will be Irma after all.
     
  8. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Current Model Guidance for Path of Irma


    storm_93.gif
     
  9. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Intensity Forecast for TS Irma

    11L_intensity_latest.png
     
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  10. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    This storm could be a threat to the US.
     
  11. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 3
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
    1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

    Irma continues to become better organized, with the development of
    a small CDO feature and increased banding near the center. An
    earlier high-resolution Windsat microwave overpass showed that Irma
    has a tight inner core and a low-level eye-like feature was
    present. A Dvorak classification of T3.5 from TAFB is the basis
    for the initial intensity of 55 kt. Irma is expected to steadily
    strengthen during the next couple of days while it moves through a
    low-shear and moist environment, and remains over warm sea
    surface temperatures. After that time, slightly cooler SSTs and
    lower mid-level moisture may temper the intensification process.
    However, the statistical aids, HWRF, and most of the consensus
    models make Irma a major hurricane by the end of the forecast
    period. The NHC forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory
    through 48 hours, but is above the earlier forecast thereafter. The
    new official intensity forecast could still be a little conservative
    as it remains a little below the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the ICON
    consensus at days 4 and 5.

    Irma is moving westward at about 10 kt to the south of deep-layer
    ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The track forecast reasoning is
    about the same as the previous advisory, with Irma expected to turn
    west-northwestward on Thursday, then continue on that heading
    for a couple of days. The high pressure ridge over the central
    Atlantic is forecast to strengthen later this week, which is
    expected to result in Irma turning west-southwestward by the
    weekend. There is still some spread among the track models, so the
    NHC forecast lies near a blend of the typically reliable GFS and
    ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 31/0300Z 16.4N 32.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
    12H 31/1200Z 16.8N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
    24H 01/0000Z 17.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
    36H 01/1200Z 17.7N 37.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
    48H 02/0000Z 18.0N 39.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
    72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 44.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
    96H 04/0000Z 16.8N 49.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
    120H 05/0000Z 16.2N 53.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

    NNNN
     
  12. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    GFS has Irma curving north and staying out of the Caribbean. The Euro has it coming closer to the Caribbean and a few have it going further south.
     
  13. South AL Wx

    South AL Wx Member
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    Well, that was quick! Irma is already a category 2 hurricane:

    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...16.9N 33.8W
    ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    ABOUT 1845 MI...2975 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

     
  14. Tyler Penland

    Tyler Penland Mountain Snow Miser
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    Well she's taking off. I really think the rapid strengthening is gonna pull her further north than the Euro is showing.
    [​IMG]
     
  15. Beer Belly

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    Why is the NHC track south of all of the Models?
     
  16. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Irma will is forecasted by NHC to be a Major Hurricane sometime today.

    IRMA_145426_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
     
  17. South AL Wx

    South AL Wx Member
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    Here's what NHC says in their discussion:

    Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model
    guidance since yesterday.

    Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of
    the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge
    and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to
    discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the
    guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short
    range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long
    range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF
    ensemble models.
     
  18. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Almost never a good sign this far out. Thankful we have the humans at NHC who can forecast this thing especially for those island nations. Hang on folks. I think it is going to be Irma's Wild Ride.
     
  19. Blountwolf

    Blountwolf Member
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    Well, that escalated quickly.
     
  20. South AL Wx

    South AL Wx Member
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    Model differences in the long range...

    GFS:

    [​IMG]

    ECMWF:

    [​IMG]
     

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