Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Taylor Campbell, Aug 16, 2017.
Thread for Invest 92L.
We are going to have to watch this one closely as it looks to have the best shot at a US landfall.
0z CMC has a significant hurricane into the FL Panhandle at 240 hours
UKMET is almost a hurricane at 144 hours entering the Bahamas on a track towards S FL/Gulf
This *may* get interesting
The CMC forecast strengthening in an environment characterized by unfavorably dry air, and shear. That's baloney! Just maybe depending on how well it holds up similar to 99L that eventually became Gert, it could develop when it gets closer to the U.S. Noted on some CMC, EURO, and GFS ensembles.
We'll see how 92L handles this shear overnight.
Now code red. Development up to 70%
The gulf? Uh...I'm no expert, but only one of those model tracks actually approaches the gulf...what am I missing?
Just one model showing a Gulf impact out of several that curve up the east coast. i.e., it is an outlier. Obviously things could change and JP qualifies his statement by saying "less likely"(unlike one of his competitors who likes to make definitive statements on things like this many days ahead of time).
Invest 92L is back in the Atlantic and is now upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten. Expected to become Irma soon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Removed Sticky Since this was removed from the NHC page.
Hurricane Force Winds in this storm.