Former Invest 91L June 12 2018

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by JayF, Jun 12, 2018.

  1. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 121736
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western
    Caribbean Sea just to the east of Nicaragua and northeastern
    Honduras is associated with a sharp surface trough. This area of
    disturbed weather is forecast to move westward to northwestward over
    Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
    days, and little development is expected during that time due to
    strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
    become slightly more conducive for some development when the system
    moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
    Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
    locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras,
    Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart two_atl_5d0 (1).png
     
  2. Jason Ledbetter

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    Do we have an update on This.... Fishing trips.. Its fishing trips making me ask!
     
  3. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    It is not looking like much. storm_91.gif
     
  4. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A surface trough located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to
    move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula and over the
    southwestern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday. Development,
    if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to strong
    upper-level winds.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    Forecaster Stewart
     
  5. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Interesting developments on the European and its ensembles. It has a piece of vorticity dragged north behind former 91L and develops it in the Bay of Campeche and Western Gulf. An approaching trough in the Plains may pull some of its moisture north into the SE for next week. A few ensembles members bring this into the Western Gulf Coast....just something to watch.
     

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