Former Invest 91L June 12 2018

JayF

Technical Administrator
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Hartselle, al
#1
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea just to the east of Nicaragua and northeastern
Honduras is associated with a sharp surface trough. This area of
disturbed weather is forecast to move westward to northwestward over
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of
days, and little development is expected during that time due to
strong upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become slightly more conducive for some development when the system
moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce
locally heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, Honduras,
Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart two_atl_5d0 (1).png
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Technical Admin
Messages
418
Location
Hartselle, al
#4
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A surface trough located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to
move west-northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula and over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday. Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
 
Messages
1,812
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
#5
Interesting developments on the European and its ensembles. It has a piece of vorticity dragged north behind former 91L and develops it in the Bay of Campeche and Western Gulf. An approaching trough in the Plains may pull some of its moisture north into the SE for next week. A few ensembles members bring this into the Western Gulf Coast....just something to watch.
 

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