Archive Former Hurricane Franklin

Taylor Campbell

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#1
This is in the Caribbean, and will need to be watched very closely. The EURO, and NOGAPS have been developing it into a significant storm.

A strong tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, along
with tropical-storm-force wind gusts in squalls. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for
development by Sunday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and by
early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system
could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba,
Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

Taylor Campbell

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#3
It is now code orange.

A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
conducive for development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea
and by early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the
disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
This system could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
18z GFS ensembles are more supportive.

 

Taylor Campbell

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Messages
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#4
00z Op EURO, and NAVGEM have a hurricane. Some GFS ensembles of the 00z, and 06z runs develop a hurricane as well.
 

Taylor Campbell

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#5
I like the way this one has looked. It also has good model support from the EURO, NAVGEM, CMC, and GFS to be a named storm.
 

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#8
000
WTNT32 KNHC 062036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Chetumal northward and around the Yucatan Peninsula to Campeche.

The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Belize City northward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
the center will move across the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next
day or so.

Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development, and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical
cyclone overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday
afternoon or evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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TWBot

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#10
000
WTNT32 KNHC 062339
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
the center will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday,
then approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Monday
afternoon. The system is forecast to move across Yucatan Peninsula
Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day
or so.

Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and
the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday
afternoon or evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

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