Archive Former Hurricane Franklin

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Taylor Campbell, Aug 3, 2017.

  1. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    This is in the Caribbean, and will need to be watched very closely. The EURO, and NOGAPS have been developing it into a significant storm.

     
  2. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    This might be an East Coast rider.
     
  3. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    It is now code orange.

    18z GFS ensembles are more supportive.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    00z Op EURO, and NAVGEM have a hurricane. Some GFS ensembles of the 00z, and 06z runs develop a hurricane as well.
     
  5. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    I like the way this one has looked. It also has good model support from the EURO, NAVGEM, CMC, and GFS to be a named storm.
     
  6. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    Looks like we'll have TD 7 at 5pm CDT.
     
  7. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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  8. TWBot

    TWBot TalkWeather Bot
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    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 062036
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
    500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

    ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN
    PENINSULA AND BELIZE...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...15.6N 82.0W
    ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
    ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
    Chetumal northward and around the Yucatan Peninsula to Campeche.

    The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
    Belize City northward.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
    to 36 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

    Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
    progress of this system.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
    15.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the
    west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
    expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
    the center will move across the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday and
    Tuesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
    gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next
    day or so.

    Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
    development, and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical
    cyclone overnight.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
    of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
    Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce
    life-threatening flash floods.

    WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
    of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm
    conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday
    afternoon or evening.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

    Continue reading...
     
  9. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    This thing looks better than just a potential tropical cyclone.
     
  10. TWBot

    TWBot TalkWeather Bot
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    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 062339
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
    800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

    ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...


    SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W
    ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
    ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    None

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
    to 36 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

    Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
    progress of this system.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
    16.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. The system is moving toward the
    west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
    expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
    the center will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday,
    then approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Monday
    afternoon. The system is forecast to move across Yucatan Peninsula
    Monday night and Tuesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
    gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day
    or so.

    Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and
    the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
    of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
    Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce
    life-threatening flash floods.

    WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
    of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm
    conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday
    afternoon or evening.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

    Continue reading...
     
  11. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    The CFSv2 model is adamant about this making landfall on the very south coast of Texas.
     
    #11 Taylor Campbell, Aug 6, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2017
  12. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    We have Franklin
     
  13. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    lol just beat me
     
  14. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    I think you were editing the title just as I was about to. I clicked on edit and once I clicked it already said TS Franklin.
     
  15. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    looks like Franklin should be our first hurricane tomorrow
     
  16. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    They updated and TS Franklin should be a Category 1 Hurricane by 7 PM this evening.
     
  17. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    Hurricane Franklin likely at 4pm CDT per BT
     
  18. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    Franklin might make a run at Cat 2 before landfall.
     

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