April 2018 Discussion

Fred Gossage

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
80
Location
Pell City, AL
#3
I think that Day 10-12 or so system is a big one to watch. Euro and Canadian, both operational and ensembles, are heavily locking onto the idea. The GFS is struggling as always (it couldn't even get the synoptic trough tilt for March 19th right 6 hours out), but even it throws hints out from time to time. Big systems and pattern changes often get delayed a little compared to when they first show up in the long range model guidance; so, it's no surprise that it looks a couple of days later than it originally did when it first started showing up a week or two ago... but the general idea of this very intense jet energy (125 kt 500mb jet streak) moving onshore in the West into the base of a large scale low amplitude trough has been there very quite a long time now. How amplified the ~144-160 hr trough is will help determine how far south the bigger one around Day 10 is able to dig before the energy ejects out.
 

ARCC

Member
Messages
327
Location
Coosa county
#4
I think that Day 10-12 or so system is a big one to watch. Euro and Canadian, both operational and ensembles, are heavily locking onto the idea. The GFS is struggling as always (it couldn't even get the synoptic trough tilt for March 19th right 6 hours out), but even it throws hints out from time to time. Big systems and pattern changes often get delayed a little compared to when they first show up in the long range model guidance; so, it's no surprise that it looks a couple of days later than it originally did when it first started showing up a week or two ago... but the general idea of this very intense jet energy (125 kt 500mb jet streak) moving onshore in the West into the base of a large scale low amplitude trough has been there very quite a long time now. How amplified the ~144-160 hr trough is will help determine how far south the bigger one around Day 10 is able to dig before the energy ejects out.
Yeah, that one may get ugly if the 0z Euro is right. Large deep subtropical ridge already pumping in moisture with widespread 68+DPs over areas over OK/AR. Also showing a very stout widespread EML with CAPE already over 2000 over large area. All which would advect east. As you said with that jet streak and trough, the table is set.
 
Last edited:

WesL

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
1,304
Location
Huntsville, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer, Storm Mapping User
#16
April 4th is #SafePlaceSelfie day! In conjunction with NOAA, NWS and other Weather-Ready Ambassadors, we are using our social media accounts to ask everyone to post a picture of them in their severe weather safe place. If you want to participate just use Twitter or Facebook and be sure to add the #SafePlaceSelfie hashtag (and tag us too @TalkWeatherNow) While you are in your safe place (if you weren't last night) be sure to take a look around and consider re-stocking or creating an emergency supply kit with the essential items you would need after a storm.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 0)

Top