Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by JayF, Apr 16, 2018.
Another weekend, more severe weather potential. Stay #weatheraware all.
Although I don't wish anyone to get hit with severe weather, I'd rather have the threat out there and have warm temps than to have that late season cold snap we had yesterday and today. Downtown Birmingham was freezing today even in the sunshine.
Agree!! The chances of you actually getting hit by a tornado can be fairly slim, but when it's cold, EVERYBODY is cold!!
Some work to be done if we want a substantial severe threat, as the models have kinda lost the system lately. Could still trend back but this looks pretty low-end/general rain and thunder as of now.
Curious to see if SPC even maintains the 15% on tomorrow's Day 4.
With how woefully inaccurate these models are these last few years, I'm surprised they put one out in the first place.
I mean a couple of days ago it was looking like potentially something if we could get some instability so I can understand why they did. "Maybe this is legit and the GFS is just underdoing the instability" is a reasonable position to take.
Or I guess they could keep it and add one for Day 5 too because obviously I know nothing.
Don’t forget about this threat tomorrow.
Tornado in Galliano, Louisiana. The storm is still warned.
Wow! Gravity wave galore! Check it out on visible satellite.
Late April and our severe setups are still confined to the Gulf Coast and share more in common with cool season events.
This is just bizzare.
Tornado warning for Crenshaw Co., AL.
Radar confirmed tornado with that storm.
Several discreet cells have formed in SE Alabama (Between Troy & Dothan). Don’t know if they will be able to produce funnels or not. (2pm)
Tornado warning for Montgomery County @ 2:20 pm. Tho not entirely unexpected the level of activity is somewhat surprising.
Tornado warned storm near Midland City AL
New MCD for west-central AL, interestingly enough
Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018
Areas affected...West-central Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222058Z - 222330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat and a few strong wind gusts will
be possible across parts of west-central Alabama late this
afternoon. The threat is expected to remain localized and weather
watch issuance appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a deepening 1008 mb
low across eastern Mississippi. Winds are backed at the surface to
the east of the surface low across most of Alabama. A moist airmass
extends northward into central Alabama where surface dewpoints are
in the mid to upper 60s F. Although little surface heating has taken
place in central Alabama, the RAP suggests that weak instability is
present. This combined with strong large-scale ascent associated
with a shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery, will support
surface-based thunderstorm development over the next couple of
hours. The WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham shows a looped hodograph with
0-6 km shear at 55 kt and 0-1 km shear near 40 kt. This should be
sufficient for storm rotation within the stronger discrete cells. As
a result, a marginal tornado threat will be possible late this
afternoon. A few strong wind gusts may also occur.
Here is surveillance video showing the moments a tornado ripped through a Galliano, LA Sonic Drive-In.
Probably the best tornado (waterspout) video of the day so far, from Fort Walton Beach, FL.