Severe WX April 20 - 22nd, 2018 Severe Potential

Messages
27
Location
Warrior, AL
#2
Although I don't wish anyone to get hit with severe weather, I'd rather have the threat out there and have warm temps than to have that late season cold snap we had yesterday and today. Downtown Birmingham was freezing today even in the sunshine.
 
Messages
230
Location
Hanceville, AL
#3
Although I don't wish anyone to get hit with severe weather, I'd rather have the threat out there and have warm temps than to have that late season cold snap we had yesterday and today. Downtown Birmingham was freezing today even in the sunshine.
Agree!! The chances of you actually getting hit by a tornado can be fairly slim, but when it's cold, EVERYBODY is cold!!
 
Messages
533
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
#7
With how woefully inaccurate these models are these last few years, I'm surprised they put one out in the first place.
I mean a couple of days ago it was looking like potentially something if we could get some instability so I can understand why they did. "Maybe this is legit and the GFS is just underdoing the instability" is a reasonable position to take.
 
Messages
373
Location
Saragossa, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
#18
New MCD for west-central AL, interestingly enough

Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Areas affected...West-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222058Z - 222330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat and a few strong wind gusts will
be possible across parts of west-central Alabama late this
afternoon. The threat is expected to remain localized and weather
watch issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a deepening 1008 mb
low across eastern Mississippi. Winds are backed at the surface to
the east of the surface low across most of Alabama. A moist airmass
extends northward into central Alabama where surface dewpoints are
in the mid to upper 60s F. Although little surface heating has taken
place in central Alabama, the RAP suggests that weak instability is
present. This combined with strong large-scale ascent associated
with a shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery, will support
surface-based thunderstorm development over the next couple of
hours. The WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham shows a looped hodograph with
0-6 km shear at 55 kt and 0-1 km shear near 40 kt. This should be
sufficient for storm rotation within the stronger discrete cells. As
a result, a marginal tornado threat will be possible late this
afternoon. A few strong wind gusts may also occur.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/22/2018
 

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