Severe WX April 20 - 22nd, 2018 Severe Potential

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by JayF, Apr 16, 2018.

  1. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    Another weekend, more severe weather potential. Stay #weatheraware all.
     
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  2. pritchlaw

    pritchlaw Member

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    Although I don't wish anyone to get hit with severe weather, I'd rather have the threat out there and have warm temps than to have that late season cold snap we had yesterday and today. Downtown Birmingham was freezing today even in the sunshine.
     
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  3. MichelleH

    MichelleH Member

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    Agree!! The chances of you actually getting hit by a tornado can be fairly slim, but when it's cold, EVERYBODY is cold!!
     
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  4. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    Some work to be done if we want a substantial severe threat, as the models have kinda lost the system lately. Could still trend back but this looks pretty low-end/general rain and thunder as of now.
     
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  5. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    Curious to see if SPC even maintains the 15% on tomorrow's Day 4.
     
  6. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    With how woefully inaccurate these models are these last few years, I'm surprised they put one out in the first place.
     
  7. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    I mean a couple of days ago it was looking like potentially something if we could get some instability so I can understand why they did. "Maybe this is legit and the GFS is just underdoing the instability" is a reasonable position to take.
     
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  8. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    Or I guess they could keep it and add one for Day 5 too because obviously I know nothing.
     
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  9. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    Don’t forget about this threat tomorrow.
     
  10. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Tornado in Galliano, Louisiana. The storm is still warned.

     
  11. Taylor Campbell

    PerryW Project Supporter

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    Wow! Gravity wave galore! Check it out on visible satellite.
     
    #11 Taylor Campbell, Apr 22, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2018
  12. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    Late April and our severe setups are still confined to the Gulf Coast and share more in common with cool season events.

    This is just bizzare.
     
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  13. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Tornado warning for Crenshaw Co., AL.
     
  14. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    Radar confirmed tornado with that storm.
     
  15. bwalk

    bwalk Member

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    Several discreet cells have formed in SE Alabama (Between Troy & Dothan). Don’t know if they will be able to produce funnels or not. (2pm)
     
  16. bwalk

    bwalk Member

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    Tornado warning for Montgomery County @ 2:20 pm. Tho not entirely unexpected the level of activity is somewhat surprising.
     
  17. apocalyptic_pleasures

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    Tornado warned storm near Midland City AL

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Equus

    Equus Member

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    New MCD for west-central AL, interestingly enough
    [​IMG]
    Mesoscale Discussion 0283
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0358 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

    Areas affected...West-central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 222058Z - 222330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal tornado threat and a few strong wind gusts will
    be possible across parts of west-central Alabama late this
    afternoon. The threat is expected to remain localized and weather
    watch issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a deepening 1008 mb
    low across eastern Mississippi. Winds are backed at the surface to
    the east of the surface low across most of Alabama. A moist airmass
    extends northward into central Alabama where surface dewpoints are
    in the mid to upper 60s F. Although little surface heating has taken
    place in central Alabama, the RAP suggests that weak instability is
    present. This combined with strong large-scale ascent associated
    with a shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery, will support
    surface-based thunderstorm development over the next couple of
    hours. The WSR-88D VWP at Birmingham shows a looped hodograph with
    0-6 km shear at 55 kt and 0-1 km shear near 40 kt. This should be
    sufficient for storm rotation within the stronger discrete cells. As
    a result, a marginal tornado threat will be possible late this
    afternoon. A few strong wind gusts may also occur.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 04/22/2018
     
  19. barcncpt44

    barcncpt44 Member

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    Here is surveillance video showing the moments a tornado ripped through a Galliano, LA Sonic Drive-In.
     
  20. barcncpt44

    barcncpt44 Member

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    Probably the best tornado (waterspout) video of the day so far, from Fort Walton Beach, FL.
     
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