Kory
Member
GFS continues to be the fastest of all guidance. The occlusion of the trough sooner as models have been trending toward would likely favor a slower solution.
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Kory
Member
That's some significant probs for this far in advance.
SREF sigtor guidance: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__
SREF sigtor guidance: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__
NWMSGuy
Member
Would this put the EURO solution more in play?
- Moderator
- #64
Last night the EURO, and UK had a much stronger, broader, and lengthy low level jet of 50-70knts whereas the CMC, and GFS were not as impressive.
tennessee storm chaser
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Spc. Says gfs the outlier at the moment
I suspect we will see one starting to give by Wednesday. The GFS could be right, but it's all alone right now.
rolltide_130
Member
12z Euro still painting a fairly omnious solution for AL on Saturday. Low level shear seems to be on the increase these last couple runs as well. Timing may be the biggest uncertainty in terms of how robust this threat gets, but even an overnight timing would still yield a fairly substantial severe threat for parts of AL.
akt1985
Member
Brad Travis says Saturday’s squall Line will be very slow moving and not to Huntsville until late Saturday night. I hope there are no supercells ahead of the line as I plan to go to Chattanooga for the day Saturday. If the line moves that slow, flash flooding may become an issue.
Kory
Member
NAM coming in pretty strong for Friday into Saturday from the ArkLaTex into the Mississippi River Valley.
Bamamuscle
Member
Jason Simpson from WHNT 19 just posted this tweet. Seems to think severe chances are low for Saturday.
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rolltide_130
Member
Kind of surprising. The NAM and Euro both are not supportive of his idea as of now.
Edit: On his post, he's basing his forecast solely on the GFS and pretty much acknowledges that fact. Not sure I'd advise doing that..
tennessee storm chaser
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Good. Point. Especially with the gfs being on a island. Alone
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- #73
Based on the looks of the NAM trough Saturday morning, and the way the GFS has been trending. I think this threat potential is going up instead of down.
Yeah I'm not sure why he is basing his forecast on the GFS. Jason has kind of boxed himself into the “little to no severe weather expected” corner. Unless the whole darn set up disappears tomorrow he's gonna have to increase his wording. Brad Travis from WAFF 48 on the other hand is relying more on the EURO which is probably better.
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- #76
Kory
Member
If anything, models across the board have trended more unstable for Saturday with the slower progression.
Kory
Member
Jackson, MS, region valid for early Saturday afternoon.
Pivotal Weather Point and Click Soundings: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2018041106&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=
Pivotal Weather SigTor values: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2018041106&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=
Pivotal Weather Point and Click Soundings: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2018041106&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=
Pivotal Weather SigTor values: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2018041106&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=
- Moderator
- #79
I'm going to cut Jason a bit of slack on this system. I think he's still recovering from his illness earlier this year and Brody, his youngest, was recently in the hospital and gave everybody a scare. (He's OK, though, thank God.)
rolltide_130
Member
Oh yeah I don't mean any disrespect to him at all, especially with all the health struggles that have been running through his family recently. I just found it somewhat of an interesting forecast on his part.
