Severe WX April 12-15th, 2018 Severe Potential

Discussion in 'General Weather Discussion' started by KoD, Apr 4, 2018.

  1. Equus

    Equus Member

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    256 storm reports today. Extremely impressive.
     
  2. KoD

    KoD Member
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    I didn't thoroughly analyze the parameters for NC/VA so I didn't put much weight on todays threat potential. In hindsight even looking at just the sim reflectivity there was signs of a lively supercell/tornado threat. GFS showed simulated streaks of high decibal return in this area for days.
     
  3. weunice

    weunice Member

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    And that number is going to go up. The somewhat transparent red triangles on this map were "radar confirmed" tornadoes showing gaps in actual LSR's vs. some other known tornado locations. The slightly larger and less transparent red ones are local storm reports.

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    Damage from likely small QLCS tornadoes in northern Ohio from this event.
     
  5. Equus

    Equus Member

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    That supercell followed the route of the Amtrak Crescent for way longer than seems plausible; I've stopped in some of those affected towns on my journeys (Greensboro, Danville, Lynchburg) I will be on the lookout for tornado damage come July, though it passes through NC/VA after dark. Definitely the storm of the weekend/whole event. It's going to be interesting to see how many separate tracks there were or if this was on the ground for a longer track - a QLCS embedded cell producing a consistent strong track of damage like that is impressively uncommon.
     
  6. Gail

    Gail Member

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    Sad. :(. That happened to us at our home on April 27 from the tornado that hit Louisville, MS. We found blinds, lots of tiny shards of wood, photos, bills (which is how we knew it was from Louisville), and prescriptions in our yard. We live about 1.5 hours northeast of Louisville. It was heartbreaking. My profile pic is the sky that was overhead when that happened.
     
  7. bwalk

    bwalk Member

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    Great observations. We don’t tend to associate that region with serious severe weather of any frequency. So, it can be somewhat ignored (unless you live there).
    As you pointed out, there was solid evidence for an outbreak of severe weather in that region today.
     
  8. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    Interesting how the third day of this outbreak, the one nobody was really paying much attention to, ended up being by far the most significant.
     
  9. Equus

    Equus Member

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    You'd think I'd pay more attention to day three after April 16 2011 and others, but it kind of slipped my mind to keep up with it. Very impressive day out there.
     
  10. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    Greensboro tornado rated very high-end EF2, winds 135 MPH.

    No rating for the Elon/Amherst tornado yet, but I’m expecting EF3.
     
  11. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    Damage from the Elon tornado is the worst I've seen so far this year. Multiple homes reduced to bare foundations. It's not likely to be rated as such (context doesn't look supportive), but I'd say EF4 is on the table.
     
  12. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Birmingham AL
    233 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

    ...Windy Conditions Through This Evening Across East Central Alabama
    then Frost Possible across the North and East Portions of Central
    Alabama...

    .Tight pressure gradients will result in continued windy conditions
    across the eastern half of Central Alabama this afternoon through
    early evening. With clearing skies and winds going light to near
    calm toward late evening along with cold temperatures, patchy
    frost will be possible across the north and east portions of
    Central Alabama during the late night and early morning hours.

    ALZ017>021-024>029-036>038-170300-
    /O.NEW.KBMX.FR.Y.0005.180417T0700Z-180417T1400Z/
    /O.CON.KBMX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180417T0200Z/
    Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Jefferson-Shelby-
    St. Clair-Talladega-Clay-Randolph-Coosa-Tallapoosa-Chambers-
    Including the cities of Oneonta, Gadsden, Anniston, Centre,
    Heflin, Birmingham, Hoover, Columbiana, Pelham, Alabaster,
    Pell City, Moody, Talladega, Sylacauga, Ashland, Roanoke,
    Rockford, Alexander City, Dadeville, Valley, Lanett,
    and Lafayette
    233 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

    ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
    ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY...

    The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Frost
    Advisory, which is in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday.

    * TIMING...of the strongest winds will be through 9 pm. Patchy
    frost will be possible from 2 am through 9 am.

    * WINDS...will generally be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
    through early evening then go to near calm for overnight.

    * TEMPERATURES...will range between 33 and 37 degrees for lows
    Tuesday morning.

    * Impacts...of the strong winds could cause driving difficulties,
    a few downed small trees or a few downed larger tree limbs.
    Impacts of the frost could result in damaging or killing crops
    and other sensitive vegetation.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 35 mph are expected.
    Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for
    high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

    A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
    Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

    &&

    $$

    ALZ011-013>015-170300-
    /O.NEW.KBMX.FR.Y.0005.180417T0700Z-180417T1400Z/
    Marion-Fayette-Winston-Walker-
    Including the cities of Hamilton, Fayette, Double Springs,
    and Jasper
    233 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

    ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY...

    The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a Frost
    Advisory, which is in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday.

    * TEMPERATURES...will range between 33 and 37 degrees for lows
    Tuesday morning.

    * IMPACTS...of the frost could result in damaging or killing
    crops and other sensitive vegetation.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
    Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

    &&

    $$

    ALZ035-041>050-170200-
    /O.CON.KBMX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-180417T0200Z/
    Chilton-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-Bullock-Lee-
    Russell-Pike-Barbour-
    Including the cities of Clanton, Prattville, Fort Deposit,
    Hayneville, Wetumpka, Tallassee, Montgomery, Tuskegee,
    Union Springs, Auburn, Opelika, Phenix City, Troy, and Eufaula
    233 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

    ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

    * TIMING...of the strongest winds will be through 9 pm.

    * WINDS...will generally be 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

    * IMPACTS...of the strong winds could cause driving difficulties,
    a few downed small trees or a few downed larger tree limbs.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 35 mph are expected.
    Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for
    high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
     
  13. warneagle

    warneagle Member

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    TLH confirms a brief EF-1 tornado in Decatur Co., GA (along the Florida line) on Sunday morning.
     
  14. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    Elon/Amherst tornado has been rated high-end EF2. I really need to hear some rationale behind that decision, because otherwise I'm baffled. The frequency of which WFOs are assigning EF2 ratings to completely destroyed frame-built homes this year is honestly starting p*ss me off a little. It sets a bad precedent for future surveys too. If the construction is really that horrid, just go with 138 MPH EF3, but applying EF2 to leveled frame homes essentially changes the definition of EF2 damage, and sends us further back into the "La Plata Syndrome" years. That is my concern.
     
    #414 buckeye05, Apr 16, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2018
  15. Daryl

    Daryl Member

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    Text from Wiki:A few homes in this area were leveled, though they were poorly anchored and overall context was not indicative of a tornado stronger than EF2 in intensity.
    Here's the drone damage video.
     
    #415 Daryl, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
  16. Equus

    Equus Member

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    Well as I basically said a few months ago, EF3 is the new EF5 for impossible standards. According to Wiki, 25 EF2s this year (at least three now pegged at highest possible EF2) and even our lone EF3 was only later upgraded to such from, yes, highest possible EF2. They seem to be defaulting to the lowest possible estimate on the DoD in every single instance. I know construction quality is poor in many areas, but seriously? Aerials seem to suggest nearly slabbed homes, for which the very lowest bound DoD estimate is low EF3.
     
    #416 Equus, Apr 17, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
  17. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    What I don’t understand is that is if context or anchoring were in question for a leveled home, up until now, defaulting to EF3 was the practice. That I’m fine with, this I am not.
     
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  18. CheeselandSkies

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    Yeah, I don't understand what they think they are gaining by deliberately lowballing as many ratings as possible. I haven't looked too closely at damage on these particular tornadoes so I will withhold judgement on them for now, but the habit of defaulting to the lowest possible estimate on the DoD (as Equus so well put it) , as if slightly overrating by a category was a far worse sin than underrating, has been a longstanding gripe of mine.

    My hunch, and it's only a hunch, is that this practice is being advocated by wind engineering types such as Tim Marshall (whom I greatly respect as a veteran chaser and severe weather researcher). I think they might be of the opinion that, by creating the impression through this damage survey "data" that houses are built so poorly that it only takes a "mere" EF2 tornado to level them, they can encourage better construction practices.

    Now I'm all for improving construction standards in the name of safety, but in my opinion the intent of damage surveys should be purely meteorological. It should aim to answer the question "How strong was this tornado, to the best of our ability based on the damage it left behind?" Nothing more, nothing less.
     
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  19. Daryl

    Daryl Member

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    I just watched it.This guy is either drunk,high or the dumbest human being on the planet.

     
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  20. buckeye05

    buckeye05 Member

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    Tim Marshall is conservative, but reasonably so. For example, he was lead surveyor for the December 2015 Garland, TX outbreak, and all those ratings were very reasonable, including the 180 MPH EF4. This current situation reeks of either WFOs taking things into their own hands and making their own guidelines, or unsure surveyors lowballing the ratings big time due to lack of confidence in how to apply the scale.
     
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