Alabama General Election for Senate (1 Viewer)

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Alabama swing counties?

Tuscaloosa County, home to the University of Alabama and Lee County, home to Auburn University went big for Trump in 2016. Trump won Tuscaloosa by 19 and Lee by 23.

On Tuesday, they headed in the opposite direction and went Jones. The Democrat won each of those counties by 17 points.

Many people thought Jones could improve upon Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance, but no one foresaw Jones winning and winning by such a margin.
 

Mike S

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Rod Bramblett's voice is just not soothing to one's ears.
I liked Bramblett until he blocked me on Twitter, and I was responding to his partner anyway. Politely, with factual data I might add. A shame they're both so thin skinned. But he is a good play by play announcer.

As for the topic at hand, it is good to see Alabama turning its nose up to a Republican of such moral depravity 13 months after doing the exact opposite.
 
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Alabama swing counties?

Tuscaloosa County, home to the University of Alabama and Lee County, home to Auburn University went big for Trump in 2016. Trump won Tuscaloosa by 19 and Lee by 23.

On Tuesday, they headed in the opposite direction and went Jones. The Democrat won each of those counties by 17 points.

Many people thought Jones could improve upon Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance, but no one foresaw Jones winning and winning by such a margin.
That was huge. Also huge was that Shelby and Baldwin County both had THOUSANDS less votes for Moore in 2017 compared to Moore. I think one had 20k less votes and the other had 25k less. I had it written down somewhere as I was doing manual calculations all last night compared to 2012 Moore/Vance race.

I did some research a few days ago on Alabama voter registration. Normally there is a 35-60k drop in black voter registrations in the year after a Presidential election. Has happened for the last 3 or 4 Presidential elections. This year? Only a 6k drop. That told me that black voters were energized and were going to come out in vote. They didn't exceed their 2016 vote totals, but they didn't have to. They simply needed to turnout close to the level seen in a major election and they did.

In analyzing the polls done a week before the election, I noticed that all the polls showing Moore with a lead were only showing black voters as making up 22-25% of the voter pool. That was UNDER their normal representative pop.

Additionally, the live interview polls were better representing what I was hearing from friends and family members anecdotally. It was overestimating enthusiasm among GOP voters, and almost all the polls strongly for Moore were REGISTERED voters instead of likely voters. Huge difference in a special election.

I could go on and on, but I made a prediction on Sunday. I said I was extremely confident it would be between +2 for Moore and +2 for Jones, but had the possibility of being anywhere from Jones +4 to Moore +8. If you understand polling ranges and uncertainty you will get what I'm talking about. In my final analysis yesterday at 7:56am I worked it out that the election would be Jones +2.8.

I put my money where my mouth was. I bought hundreds of contracts on PredictIt that Jones would win Madison and Mobile counties, and that he would defeat Moore. Made a nice profit.

I wavered last night after seeing the 2nd data dump from exit polls. Moore was doing better with college educated voters than I had worked out. It was such an intense night with dozens of manual calculations that I forgot about something simple. One, exit polls have high MOE. Two, voters may LIE about their vote or demographics when asked by an exit poller. If you didn't attend college and planned to vote for Moore, you might tell someone you did go to college when someone with a Northern accent stops you outside a poll.

But Exit polls also showed black voters turning out at 30%. I saw that first hand at my polling place. Black voter turn out was up a good 15-20% compared to the special election.

At any rate, the clincher for me was Houston County. When they had over 90% of the vote in early on (I think 4th County to be over 80% of returns in), Moore was receiving 5% less votes as a share of the overall quantity compared to 2012. Only two things could've explained that. GOP voters staying at home/writing in/voting for Jones, as an increase in the black vote there wouldn't create a 5% difference.

I was pretty confident at that point and bought more contracts on PredictIt.

The only thing that shocks me is Shelby County and Baldwin. I really thought more voters there would blindly vote GOP and just hold their nose. Not a lot wrote in votes or backed Jones. It was more that they just didn't vote. They stayed at home.

I actually think Moore overperformed in many rural areas. Cullman County, Fayette County, and a couple of others were very noticeable. Cullman had like a 13% Moore increase compared to 2012. Those voters bought the Establishment/Swamp vs. MAGA narrative. Know who didn't? Shelby and Baldwin County voters. Madison County voters. Jefferson County Over the Mountain voters. Bannon and others came in screaming about the Establishment and even knocked U of A. They forgot how many GOP voters in those counties are business/Establishment kind of voters that hate the stereotype that people in Alabama live in a trailer and have 2 teeth.

I mean, I'd imagine Moore was massacred in places like Mountain Brook/Vestavia, affluent suburbs in Madison/Baldwin, and the Highway 280 corridor. That was a massively idiotic error by Bannon and others, but that's what you get with outsiders.
 

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I am keeping an eye on the SOS's site for when they update votes by precinct. I'm just curious as to how my precinct voted compared to 2016.

My precinct voted straight Republican and also voted for Trump by a 2:1 margin, and for Brooks and Shelby by a 2.5:1 margin. (65 write-in votes for POTUS, of which I was one). I saw one Roy Moore sign in my general area and dozens of Doug Jones signs and I'm curious as to how that translated at my precinct. I'm guessing 50/50 ish.

http://sos.alabama.gov/alabama-votes/voter/election-data
 
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This gives me hope....

Doug Jones, the new senator-elect from Alabama, said Wednesday that President Donald Trump had invited him to visit the White House following his victory over Republican nominee Roy Moore.

“He congratulated me on the race we won,” Jones said while addressing reporters in Birmingham for the first time since delivering his victory speech the night prior. “He congratulated me and my staff on the way we handled this campaign and went forward. And we talked about finding that common ground to work together.”

He added: “He invited me over to the White House to visit as soon as I get up there. Very nice phone call, very pleasant phone call, and I appreciated him very much reaching out to me.”
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/13/jones-alabama-moore-trump-strange-295328
 

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Did anyone else see the insane video Moore released today? The guy is a complete maniac, that's for certain. He's just rambling about how (more or less) he thinks the election was rigged. He even throws in a sodomy mention.
 
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What a clueless, worthless colostomy bag Chuck Modiano is. He clearly doesn’t know what it takes to be successful like Saban, otherwise he wouldn’t be writing for that dishrag print NY Daily News.

The lead-up to Roy Moore and Doug Jones' election Tuesday should have been Saban’s shining career moment to show true leadership and humanity.

By remaining silent on the numerous allegations that Moore was a pedophile, Saban showed he does not care about the plight or protection of young women and girls.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/c...e=twitter.com&utm_campaign=NYDNSports+Twitter



Yep, Saban doesn't care about kids at all!

Alabama coach Nick Saban and his wife Terry continue to make a difference in the Tuscaloosa community with their Nick’s Kids Foundation.

The foundation donated a record $500,000 to 150 charities on Wednesday during its annual luncheon, pushing its total to $7 million during their time in Tuscaloosa.

“It means a lot to me,” Saban said Wednesday. “We always try look for ways to give back. It’s an example that we want to set for the community as well as our players in terms of someone that is in a position that people have a chance to look up to and maybe respect some of the things you do.”

A few of Nick’s Kids projects include:

  • 16 for 16 Home Building Project with Habitat for Humanity
o NKF has sponsored the building of 16 homes in honor of the 16 National Championships that UA Football has won

  • Nick’s Kids Playground along the Tuscaloosa Riverwalk
  • Annual Teacher’s Excellence Awards Luncheon
o Honored 45 City of Tuscaloosa and Tuscaloosa County teachers for their dedication to educating the children in our community

  • Nick’s Kids Playground at Alberta School of Performing Arts
  • Major contributors to the new YMCA of Tuscaloosa
  • Renovating the STTEP Building at Brewer Porch Children’s Cente
https://www.seccountry.com/alabama/alabama-football-nick-saban-donation
 
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Maybe it's because I'm not as die-hard into college football as a lot of southerners are, but it's so weird to me that people care what Nick Saban thinks about anything outside of football. If you don't care about college football/Alabama football, he's irrelevant. Why the hell should a football coach come out and make a political stump speech?

Also, who thinks Moore will pay for the recount? As much as I'd like to never see or hear about him again, I'm a little curious to see what he does next. He's obviously not going to concede, so what's his plan besides being a complete maniac?
 

ghost

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Maybe it's because I'm not as die-hard into college football as a lot of southerners are, but it's so weird to me that people care what Nick Saban thinks about anything outside of football. If you don't care about college football/Alabama football, he's irrelevant. Why the hell should a football coach come out and make a political stump speech?

Also, who thinks Moore will pay for the recount? As much as I'd like to never see or hear about him again, I'm a little curious to see what he does next. He's obviously not going to concede, so what's his plan besides being a complete maniac?
I don't think he will go away.... maybe run for governor? House of Rep?
 
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I don't think he will go away.... maybe run for governor? House of Rep?
Anything in terms of elected office wise, his career is over. I can see him attempting to run but I don't think he has any real chance, especially since Kay Ivey will be the overwhelming favorite since Tommy Battle's campaign fell apart because of how he handled the Moore debacle early on.
 

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Anything in terms of elected office wise, his career is over. I can see him attempting to run but I don't think he has any real chance, especially since Kay Ivey will be the overwhelming favorite since Tommy Battle's campaign fell apart because of how he handled the Moore debacle early on.
Battle's campaign hasn't fallen apart and Ivey publicly stated she was voting for Moore, so that issue is effectively off the table between those two at least.

I thought Moore's career was over when he was soundly defeated in his last race(governor I think), and even though Trump endorsed Strange I think Moore's rise to popularity is because voters saw him more in line with Trump.
 
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