2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Mike S, Apr 5, 2018.

  1. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    Colorado State University has released their 2018 Hurricane Season forecast.

    Nutshell - 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 majors.

     
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  2. Kory

    Kory Member

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    A lot is going to hinge on the ENSO state. Last summer was very favorable as the atmosphere was in a cooperating La Nina state. Not sure I buy the El Nino some models were hinting at earlier this spring.
     
  3. Kory

    Kory Member

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    What a piece of junk the newest/upgraded GFS is. Has a hurricane in the Gulf in a week. I see the physics end of things are the same ole GFS.
     
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  4. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Should have heard me laughing this morning when I spotted that. I'm on a cruise in the Gulf next week during Hurricane GFS.
     
  5. CheeselandSkies

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    This morning's 0Z GFS still says "Hello, Alberto" at the end of the run.

    Edit: 06Z run, still there but this time brings it through the Bahamas and into SE FL. LMAO.

    Maybe if it keeps forecasting a hurricane at the very end of each run, by sometime in August it'll be right.
     
    #5 CheeselandSkies, May 9, 2018
    Last edited: May 9, 2018
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  6. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
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    GFS moved it from the Atlantic to a TD forming near the Yucatan bringing it up to the Gulf coast of Florida on Tuesday, May 22nd.
     
  7. Kory

    Kory Member

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    I wouldn't completely rule out development with the MJO as forecasted by the GFS. It often overdevelops these monsoonal gyres, but some troughing over the Gulf in the 1-2 week period could aid in development.
     
  8. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Don't be surprised to see a weak subtropical type system develop in conjunction with the ULL in the Gulf over the next several days. Forecasted to move North into the Southeast, so it could be quite the rain maker...which we need.

    As for the late in the run GFS system...it continues to fall back in time, which is a sure sign that it is likely a phantom storm.
     
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  9. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    A little rain for the SE is really a good thing. Here is the latest drought monitor for Alabama showing some areas of SE Alabama moving into moderate drought conditions.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Models continue to latch onto a cold core cut off transitioning to tropical before moving into the Gulf Coast. It likely won't have enough time to fully transition but some tropical rains will be moving into the Southeast. Some baroclinic enhancement will likely lead to continued strengthening as it moves inland.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source (Tropical Tidbits Euro Model): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...s&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018051200&fh=12
     
    #10 Kory, May 12, 2018
    Last edited: May 12, 2018
  11. rolltide_130

    rolltide_130 Member

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    GFS has a hefty hurricane off the E coast at the end of the run.

    What on Earth is that model smoking?

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Yeah, it's a piece of junk. Very much an outlier as its ensemble suite doesn't match it.
     
  13. apocalyptic_pleasures

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  14. apocalyptic_pleasures

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    Code Orange

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
    from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
    Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
    with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
    low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
    characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
    Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
    or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
    across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
    the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
    products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
    Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
    Monday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Monday - Much of the same.
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    935 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
    from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula
    is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting
    with an upper-level low. This system could acquire some subtropical
    or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
    the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of
    subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance
    rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast
    during the next few days. For more information on this system,
    please see products issued by your local weather office. The next
    Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4
    PM EDT today.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    Forecaster Pasch

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Well...maybe the GFS isn't COMPLETELY off its rocker regarding development from the Caribbean gyre. Several other globals are indicating some development down there within the 7 day range (Euro is day 9/10).

    Otherwise, a big slug of moisture is moving into the Southeast the next several days. Looks like this system will leave a weakness which should permit higher daily rain chances than we've been seeing.
     
  17. Kory

    Kory Member

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    Some indications of lower than normal pressures in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico come the first week of June.
     
  18. MattW

    MattW Member

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    GFS still sticking to its guns on a tropical system Memorial Day Weekend. Track basically keeps fluctuating between Alabama and the Carolinas.
     
  19. WesL

    WesL Administrator
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    Well I'll be in the Gulf of Mexico to let you know how that formation is going. Hope it all is just a GFS'cane and it fades away quickly in the next few runs.
     
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  20. KoD

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    Looks like we're gonna have another record gfs'cane season in 2018
     
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