2017 Hurricane Season Discussion

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Mike S, Apr 17, 2017.

  1. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    0z Euro has a hurricane east of the Antilles next weekend...

    this may be happening???

    Edit, wow, a major hurricane for the Antilles at Day 9, King Euro has gone all in lol

    If we still got this agreement tomorrow night I may be starting a thread for a wave still over Africa lol

    [​IMG]
     
    #21 Brent, Jul 7, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2017
  2. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    12z Euro lost it but the 0z GFS again has a major hurricane in the Caribbean that hits Hispanola and then heads for Florida
     
  3. KoD

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    GFS still hanging onto something forming and tracking near/south/through the hurricane shredder aka DR/Haiti
     
  4. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    GFS, GFS para, CMC, UKMET all have something from this now at 0z.... most models I've seen

    Developing in 3-5 days, may see the NHC mention it soon.

    GFS Is back onto a major hurricane by next weekend south of Puerto Rico

    GFS/CMC both have it somewhere near Haiti or Eastern Cuba at 240 hours

    GFS ends with a very large major hurricane just south of Brownsville at 360 hours(July 24th, my birthday lol)
     
    #24 Brent, Jul 8, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2017
  5. Taylor Campbell

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    We have a little something to watch out in between 40-30W/10N. The 12z operational GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC both show it wrapping up tighter over the next 84hrs. I have seen some ensemble members of the GFS develop it into a strong storm. EURO does nothing.
     
  6. Taylor Campbell

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    There's a good looking disturbance behind Invest 95L. This area should probably be labeled an invest as well.
     
  7. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    An area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred miles
    west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of
    this system is possible over the next several days while it moves
    slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest over the open Atlantic
    Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    Could we get Don and Emily this week?
     
  8. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
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    Rainfall in western Sahel has generally been above-average over the past month - often a harbinger of an active Atlantic hurricane season

     
  9. Taylor Campbell

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    The last two runs of the EURO developed a tropical system in the eastern Atlantic. The CFSv2 model has hinted at something for the 1st week of August for a long time now. We are about to see an uptick in activity it seems.
     
  10. Taylor Campbell

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    GFS ensembles are very busy.
     
  11. Taylor Campbell

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    There was a lull in the GFS picking up on a storm, but the 18z has picked it up again. It starts forming in relatively short order too. By Saturday night.
     
  12. Taylor Campbell

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    A good number of models last night showed development in the eastern Atlantic.
     
  13. Taylor Campbell

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    It sure does look active out there in the eastern Atlantic. 00z GFS forms something soon.
     
  14. Taylor Campbell

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    I mean something has to form out there right.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Taylor Campbell

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    The tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic looks healthy. I would think the NHC classifies it as something soon.
     
  16. Taylor Campbell

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    The Caribbean was once upon a time the shredder, but that is forecast to change substantially.

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Brent

    Brent Moderator
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    12z Euro has Franklin and Gert next week
     
  18. Taylor Campbell

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    We need to watch the tropical wave entering the Caribbean.
     
  19. Taylor Campbell

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    Last two runs of the EURO has had a little something in the central Atlantic.

    There's also slight hints on the CFSv2 model of something potentially in the Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico long range.

    12z

    [​IMG]

    00z

    [​IMG]
     
  20. Taylor Campbell

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    There has been growing support on the GFS for this potential system, and the EURO has maintained the idea of some degree. Satellite imagery shows a pretty active area in the eastern Atlantic, and across Africa tonight.
     

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