damaging winds

- How much rain will we get? - How much wind? Discuss the forecast and models here!

There’s been a big increase in GFS ensembles showing a significant severe event long range. A look at the EURO control also shows significant severe.

I’m starting a thread for today’s severe weather threat. I figure it could be quite busy. Here is an interesting statement from the current Day 1 SPC outlook.

There’s a large enhanced risk today for parts of southeastern New Mexico, and west central/southwest Texas. The threat then shifts eastward tomorrow, and Thursday into the MS River Valley, Southeast, and Ohio Valley with a slight risk.

While this doesn't look as potent as Saturday's system, a nonzero threat for severe weather exists tomorrow. While the CAD looks to hold strong in Central and East Alabama, places further south and west will have a warm sector that will be able to support organized surface based convection. In...

The GFS, NAM, and EURO show a severe weather threat Monday, November 12th, but defer on how far the threat extends inland. The EURO has been adamant about getting it further north into central Alabama, and Georgia, whereas the GFS, and NAM have been hesitant to bring the threat inland until...

Models amplify a trough Thursday through the weekend across the eastern US. The jet configuration is healthy being that it's broadly stretched, and abnormally strong for this time of the year. It will filter in cooler air aloft resulting in steep lapse rates, and a strongly unstable atmosphere...

This looks like a pretty significant southward/ eastward advancing MCS event with a multitude of damaging wind reports.

A thread to discuss this year’s severe weather season.