Severe Weather 2018

I am wondering that when the westerlies start lifting north, as they usually do in May, we get one of these upper lows positioned a bit more favorable for severe weather in the southeast...if that happens in late April early May, instability is less likely to be an issue.

Looking at the models for the rest of this month (April) - looks like Oklahoma may break a very longstanding record. The latest the state has ever gone into a new year without a verified tornado is April 26.

The NWS is reporting no tornadoes in the state of Oklahoma so far in 2018
(source: https://www.weather.gov/oun/tornadodata-ok-2018), & unless something changes quickly the state will keep the streak going into the month of May.

This is pretty significant.

I imagine the chaser tour folks out there are beside themselves as well as all their customers who have taken vacation weeks off to tour. Guess they can always chase wildfires.

Wow! Unreal!

I saw where they are predicting a warmer than average May for the majority of the country and wetter than average for the southeast. Obviously that doesn’t mean severe weather but I’d assume it’d mean an active period. My experience living in North Alabama is that severe season tends to fade mid month as we head toward summer. The May 5th 1995 Anderson Hills tornado is one of the later events I can remember.

Weatherphreak said:

I saw where they are predicting a warmer than average May for the majority of the country and wetter than average for the southeast. Obviously that doesn’t mean severe weather but I’d assume it’d mean an active period. My experience living in North Alabama is that severe season tends to fade mid month as we head toward summer. The May 5th 1995 Anderson Hills tornado is one of the later events I can remember.

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If I can nitpick, it was May 18, 1995. Hazel Green was also hit on May 11th?, 1995 and May 26/27, 2011.

You are definitely correct in that history is not on the side of a completely quiet may

Yeah I wouldn't count out May for Dixie this year.. there are signs starting to emerge that the pattern may wake itself up a notch as we head into May, and we've had plenty of significant post-April events here.

Some our biggest outbreaks in mid south Memphis area have been In may

but as a severe wx fan... models hint at the jet stream starting to move north towards border, concerns me...

The May 27 1973 Brent-Centreville event always intrigued me, being an event so far south in central AL so close to June. Won't let my guard down just in case obviously, but we will see.

Equus said:

The May 27 1973 Brent-Centreville event always intrigued me, being an event so far south in central AL so close to June. Won't let my guard down just in case obviously, but we will see.

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west tn was under a high risk day as late as may 25 that was the famous 2011 year course...

Oh yeah, I'd forgotten the risk came that far south that day. I do remember following the outbreak that day pretty well, after seeing all the destruction across Oklahoma. April/May 2011 were outright absurd.

tennessee storm chaser said:

Some our biggest outbreaks in mid south Memphis area have been In may

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You’re right about Memphis. My buddies used to go to Memphis in May every year and they were always dodging bad weather.

SPC day 4-8 outlook ... Potential too low

KoD said:

SPC day 4-8 outlook ... Potential too low

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Sounds familiar.

tennessee storm chaser said:

west tn was under a high risk day as late as may 25 that was the famous 2011 year course...

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On May 30, 2004, western Tennessee not only had a High Risk... but northwestern Tennessee had 35% hatched tornado probabilities on the 20Z Day 1 outlook, which would be the operational equivalent to 45% hatched tornado probabilities after the rescaling they did several years ago.

Fred Gossage said:

On May 30, 2004, western Tennessee not only had a High Risk... but northwestern Tennessee had 35% hatched tornado probabilities on the 20Z Day 1 outlook, which would be the operational equivalent to 45% hatched tornado probabilities after the rescaling they did several years ago.

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i had totally forgot about that threat... great reminder....

Finally seeing signs of a weather pattern change ... look for finally a severe wx threat by very end month into first may... starting out plains first .... then later putting parts of the south into play ....

06z GFS has a pretty nasty look along the dry line in Oklahoma on Tuesday. Might get them off the schneid on the tornado count this year if that holds up.

Starting get bit excited or severe wx chance least for the upper south late next week...

Can mod please delete first post. Didn’t mean post twice ....