Severe Weather 2026

[Kds86z]

Hey don't be a party pooper leprechaun, I need a reason so I can get back on the forum. And get out of the talkweather slumber I've been in from the quiet season lol. Lol hopefully we will know something better in about 2-3 days

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

I forgot to add the storm prediction center has a D2 categorical Outlook out for tomorrow with 2% tornado risk

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah im not sure who is starting the hype train but my boss at work came up to me and said he's hearing people talking about a possible tornado outbreak in alabama in 10 days..... *face palm*

 

[Kds86z]

Yeah im not sure who is starting the hype train but my boss at work came up to me and said he's hearing people talking about a possible tornado outbreak in alabama in 10 days..... *face palm*

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Yeah and this guy doesn't just hype things up. I haven't said anything to anybody. He just came up to me out of the blue hahaha

 

[JPWX]

At the very least, you would expect a strong squall line with few spin ups. Thus far, modelling isn't really screaming significant tornado outbreak next week.

 

[JBishopwx]

From NWS Jackson AFD:

A brief rebound in shortwave ridging after the weekend system will lower rain chances until Tuesday, but can't rule out some rain in that time. The West Coast trough should break down over the weekend and the overall pattern become more progressive. A low pressure system deepening out of this trough is then expected to dig and spin over the Southern Plains early in the week. Timing and spacing of the features is uncertain for that kind of pattern this far out, but it will likely result in a stronger frontal system crossing the region. More robust guidance solutions support a cold front squall line scenario on Tuesday. Explicit instability values are low this far in advance, but greater moistening (dew points over 65) and flow resulting in better wind shear may bring a chance for more organized thunderstorm development or even severe weather to our area on Tuesday.

 

[N0mz]

These iffy mid-range events are classic +enso fall/winter. Typically, the environment is wet and warm enough; the hard part is getting the southern and northern streams to phase, which tends to be both rare (especially in +enso) and hard to predict.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

"Veered wind profiles and strong deep-layer shear will support a discrete mode
including the potential for supercells. In fact, wind profiles are
quite favorable within this zone with instability being the primary
limiting factor. However, it would only take an increase of a few
degrees in the dewpoint and/or temperature for greater instability
and potentially a more impactful event. Therefore, while the
forecast remains conditional, the ceiling could involve strong
tornado potential."

Also new day 1 put 2-5% cig 1 hatched avocado

 

[Kds86z]

"Veered wind profiles and strong deep-layer shear will support a discrete mode
including the potential for supercells. In fact, wind profiles are
quite favorable within this zone with instability being the primary
limiting factor. However, it would only take an increase of a few
degrees in the dewpoint and/or temperature for greater instability
and potentially a more impactful event. Therefore, while the
forecast remains conditional, the ceiling could involve strong
tornado potential."

Also new day 1 put 2-5% cig 1 hatched avocado

Well hello there tornado hatch, long time no see.. oh wait, maybe we did with Isaias. One last tornado hurrah for October.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

yep avocado 2-5% tornado cig 1 hatch and oh interesting and yeah

 

[Kds86z]

"Veered wind profiles and strong deep-layer shear will support a discrete mode
including the potential for supercells. In fact, wind profiles are
quite favorable within this zone with instability being the primary
limiting factor. However, it would only take an increase of a few
degrees in the dewpoint and/or temperature for greater instability
and potentially a more impactful event. Therefore, while the
forecast remains conditional, the ceiling could involve strong
tornado potential."

Also new day 1 put 2-5% cig 1 hatched avocado

You’re up @CheeselandSkies, haha. Doubt you can though.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Euro is leaning with the gfs solution now

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Euro is leaning with the gfs solution now

Correct just fixing post that….

 

[CheeselandSkies]

You’re up @CheeselandSkies, haha. Doubt you can though.

As usual, it's set up just about an hour too far away and too conditional for a work day/night.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I wouldn't be entirely out to the idea of a thread today but I think odds are lower that the conditional scenario verifies
Moisture return will be very closely watched today.

Yeah im not sure who is starting the hype train but my boss at work came up to me and said he's hearing people talking about a possible tornado outbreak in alabama in 10 days..... *face palm*

As for this, tell him wheres he getting it from on Facebook. Pat DooDoo's Weather Page with the big, overzealous graphic made by a human called Alec Itty (read the initial) and it's got the text all over the place with weird graphics! Yeah, that's probably where. Facebook is a absolute travesty today as a result of this guy called Alec Itty