Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[tennessee storm chaser]

If something can get out front
In Midsouth region, and take advantage of the environment , bang goes dynamite especially over nw Tennessee powder keg

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Shear vectors are decently discrete in the OWS and that's what you're looking for. Semi discrete-messy mode would still probably result in a significant event. Once CAMs come in, this will be easier to depict.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Shear vectors are decently discrete in the OWS and that's what you're looking for. Semi discrete-messy mode would still probably result in a significant event. Once CAMs come in, this will be easier to depict.

We should be getting into early cam range j
This afternoon

 

[warneagle]

Shear vectors are decently discrete in the OWS and that's what you're looking for. Semi discrete-messy mode would still probably result in a significant event. Once CAMs come in, this will be easier to depict.

Yeah the SPC said explicitly that even if it does end up being a kind of mixed/clustered mode that strong tornadoes were still on the table with any embedded supercells just because of how favorable the environment will be.

 

[Clancy]

Models have become more explicit about the likelihood of secondary low development behind our main system Tuesday afternoon into the evening. This would improve forcing and enhance low-level shear, not by a lot, but enough to enhance mesocyclones within convection that becomes robust enough to support it. Many of our favorite probabilistic modelling solutions have also uptrended the magnitude of threat for Tuesday. While the threat wouldn't be anything on the scale of Monday's threat across the Middle Mississippi into Ohio Valleys, hazards with any storms that sustain themselves would be damaging winds and hail, and the tornado threat, while low, wouldn't be zero.

 

[ThatGuy;P]

Day 3 MDT is still on the table. Right now the probs are the highest in both directions that they can be while still being an Enhanced risk. It relies on whether or not at 1930z they either move it to 60% or, more likely considering the description on the day 3, a cig 2

 

[Kds86z]

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I’m anxious see day 3 update here soon

 

[TornadoFan]

When was the last time there was a Day 3 MDT?

 

[Ozonelayer]

When was the last time there was a Day 3 MDT?

3/15 of last year I believe.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

When was the last time there was a Day 3 MDT?

Actually think was bout this time last year. Upper Midwest

 

[slenker]

3/15 of last year I believe.

4/28 last year was a D3 MOD, and we all know how that turned out. But I think a D3 MOD is definitely on the table here.

 

[RFD66]

Models have become more explicit about the likelihood of secondary low development behind our main system Tuesday afternoon into the evening. This would improve forcing and enhance low-level shear, not by a lot, but enough to enhance mesocyclones within convection that becomes robust enough to support it. Many of our favorite probabilistic modelling solutions have also uptrended the magnitude of threat for Tuesday. While the threat wouldn't be anything on the scale of Monday's threat across the Middle Mississippi into Ohio Valleys, hazards with any storms that sustain themselves would be damaging winds and hail, and the tornado threat, while low, wouldn't be zero.

How are people posting graphics now?

 

[Kds86z]

New Day 3: A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO LEVEL
4/MODERATE WAS CONSIDERED, BUT WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE WHICH
WILL HOPEFULLY CLARIFY HOW EARLY-DAY CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE.


..MID-SOUTH

THOUGH THIS AREA WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
ASCENT, RICH MOISTURE (UPPER 60S F TO POTENTIALLY LOW 70S F
DEWPOINTS) WILL PROMOTE 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET
WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION. AROUND 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR CAN BE
EXPECTED. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

 

[jackhutwx]

New Day 3: A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO LEVEL
4/MODERATE WAS CONSIDERED, BUT WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE WHICH
WILL HOPEFULLY CLARIFY HOW EARLY-DAY CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE.

yeah i expected as much. good call.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

By the way there is a day 4 slight yellow 15 percent highlighted risk for Tuesday would have to look again but I believe it’s midsouth and points southward to Deep South

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Sorry was way off ark-la-tex and parts of the midsouth

 

[GXSC]

Storm Prediction Center Jun 15, 2026 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Once again, I am just to the northwest of a mega severe weather risk only a few countries away, and must figure out if it will nudge itself up here.

I would be so stressed out this year if I was still in Peoria, IL.

 

[Ozonelayer]

"Supercells are possible along the warm front, pre-frontal trough,
and even the open warm sector given the forcing for ascent. All
severe hazards will be possible including very-large hail,
significant winds, and strong tornadoes. Potential for longer track
tornadoes is not out of the question. "

From the latest D3. Very concerning.

 

[OhOkayThen]

New HRRR kind of highlights SPC's concern about early convection for NW IL, SE IA. A lot of rain. Likely limits things around there and pushes main, initial supercell/tornado threat SE into Central/Southern Illinois.