US_Highway15
Member
Pulled this sounding from eastern Oklahoma. The ingredients (especially SRH values) on this look crazy. Sunday's definitely the red letter day to me as well if I had to pick one, as long as the cap breaks.
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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
Pulled this sounding from eastern Oklahoma. The ingredients (especially SRH values) on this look crazy. Sunday's definitely the red letter day to me as well if I had to pick one, as long as the cap breaks.
I’ve always thought that as well. However, looking at a lot of previous events, you sometimes have straight up perfect perpendicular vectors, with supercells maintaining throughout the event. Even with splits. Sometimes storms don’t split until they’re very mature, others as soon as they roll off the boundary. I think at that point, it just comes down to the storm scale and interactions stage.
I think as long as they aren’t parallel, anything 30 degrees plus is preferable.
tennessee storm chaser
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A lot depends on Sundays threat how mondays go….
N0mz
Member
100+ cin won’t work, although I’m pretty sure there’s cooler air aloft a little north (and the GFS has a little bit of a capping bias)
WhirlingWx
Member
I agree that storm splitting and interactions would definitely be something to watch, but as for the *likelihood* of said splits to occur, or what storm would be favored in a given environment, the hodograph shape itself is another important thing to keep in mind.
Straighter hodographs would favor splitting storms, hodographs that turn counterclockwise with height would favor left-movers, and big, looping, clockwise-turning-with-height hodographs favor right-movers (hence why you tend to see them in notable tornadic environments).
This is a bit of an oversimplification, but I hope it makes sense. Would be much easier to show if I could paste visuals, of course.
Muwx
Member
I can't find it now but I saw a sounding from the GFS where the top supercell analog was May 4, 2003, which is a very underrated outbreak IMO. Interestingly, that outbreak was also on a Sunday.
warneagle
Member
I think the individual days of the May 2003 event get overlooked because it was such a long outbreak sequence that each day just kind of gets subsumed into the whole.
[insert "May 3rd all over again" joke here]
Weatherguyx
Member
there's just something about May and having these long tornado outbreak sequences. 2008, 2011, 2019....
warneagle
Member
not exactly sure what they're getting at here? you don't have the classic dry punch aloft and the LLLRs aren't great but low level moisture overall is respectable and T/Td spreads aren't too big.
Just opinionated Twitter BS.
I’ve observed countless plains events over the years with this kind of profile as well as heard Trey and other mentions countless times that you don’t need a deep moist layer for plains events.
Edit: I’m also not a fan of taking soundings off the GFS/Euro deterministic runs this far out. Synoptics? You bet, that’s what they are there for. Soundings is what I usually pull from the mid ranges. I just think it’s eye candy and junk food to pluck soundings off of those runs and expect it to be a 1:1 representation of the environment.
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Kds86z
Member
Yep it’s a miracle, Midwest isn’t in a threat
slenker
Member
From the sounds of the extended range discussion, it really seems like the SPC isn't buying the lack of convection for Sunday being progged by the globals right now, and with the environment that may be in place, I think this is easily the highest ceiling event thus far this year. The general look of the trough, the fact that it ejects with good timing, the cap being strong... definitely more confident in this threat than I have been all Spring so far. If the cap breaks, that is. I'm very interested to see what the CAMs show.
I think for Monday a higher threat area will eventually realize with a 30% inclusion for areas near central northwest Alabama north Mississippi and west Tennessee. Of course more changes to come but cips agrees with a higher area in that corridor, and I think the euro supports the idea.
Maybe it's just me, but so far this year I've noticed models have underperformed on convection that actually occurs.
bckhd2
Member
I'll be curious to see what they do with Monday as we get closer to the weekend ... tricky forecast with Sunday having bearing on how Monday plays out
CheeselandSkies
Member
Saturday 4/11 they significantly underplayed the convection that formed in Kansas/southeast Nebraska. Very subtle forcing mechanisms at play that day. Ended up being a small MCV that fired off the HP supercell my tour group chased west-northwest of Wichita. None of the CAMs had a robust supercell there, although some picked up on the MCV enough to show modest attempts at CI.
Kds86z
Member
What about beast Kansas supercell too from April 13. Gosh I loved that supercell. Incredible structure. Believe it wasn’t even in tornado risk. Produced 2 EF2s and couple others.
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Sunday is high end but I've pulled some soundings where it's confusing why models don't fire even globally. It's a high end environment easily, but convection not being shown is holding me back from saying anything further. The devil is in the details as always, just need to find what that "detail" is