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Severe Weather 4/17/26

Regardless of where yesterday ends up in Wisconsin history, I do think we got quite lucky this week.

Wisconsin is, in my view, absolutely due for a higher-end outbreak that involves intense/violent tornadoes. As set-ups like this potentially become more common with climate change, we’re going to see an event that not only breaks the single day tornado record, but ends up producing the kind of event that every other state around us has had at one point in the past century.

I think it’s a bit of a happy accident that the state has 1) not seen a violent rated tornado since the Oakfield F5 in 1996 (although I’ll note the 2007 June outbreak that produced the very long track tornado through places like Menominee reservation was almost certainly violent. The forest damage is some of the most impressive I’ve ever seen, and I believe the scar may still be visible on satellite?), and 2) that we’ve avoided having an higher-end event with at least a few intense/violent tornadoes in a single day for decades. Even when we’ve had set-ups that held that kind of potential (April 10, 2011 and June 7, 2007 just to name the two best examples in my lifetime), we’ve dodged that bullet so far.

The fact that the single day record is just 27 tornadoes goes to show that the state has been incredibly lucky to some extent.
 
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DanLarsen34 said:
Regardless of where yesterday ends up in Wisconsin history, I do think we got quite lucky this week.

Wisconsin is, in my view, absolutely due for a higher-end outbreak that involves intense/violent tornadoes. As set-ups like this potentially become more common with climate change, we’re going to see an event that not only breaks the single day tornado record, but ends up producing the kind of event that every other state around us has had at one point in the past century.

I think it’s a bit of a happy accident that the state has 1) not seen a violent rated tornado since the Oakfield F5 in 1996 (although I’ll note the 2007 June outbreak that produced the very long track tornado through places like Menominee reservation was almost certainly violent. The forest damage is some of the most impressive I’ve ever seen, and I believe the scar may still be visible on satellite?), and 2) that we’ve avoided having higher-end event with at least a few intense/violent tornadoes in a single day for decades.

The fact that the single day record is just 27 tornadoes goes to show that the state has been incredibly lucky to some extent.
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Just to expand on the neighboring states part a bit more:

Minnesota had June 17, 2010 that meets the criteria above. Michigan had two of these events in the 50s and 60s. Illinois has had several events like this. And, Iowa has had them as recently as 2024.
 
VultureDirge89 said:
Alright, I'm back, what did I miss this time? Left around 7:00 pm Eastern/6:00 pm Central.
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Line went through Illinois dropping several QLCS tornadoes. Went through Indiana forcing a few tornado warnings (including my county, but I wasn't in it). Elkhart County didn't sustain any damage but I know areas west of me did.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
Regardless of where yesterday ends up in Wisconsin history, I do think we got quite lucky this week.

Wisconsin is, in my view, absolutely due for a higher-end outbreak that involves intense/violent tornadoes. As set-ups like this potentially become more common with climate change, we’re going to see an event that not only breaks the single day tornado record, but ends up producing the kind of event that every other state around us has had at one point in the past century.

I think it’s a bit of a happy accident that the state has 1) not seen a violent rated tornado since the Oakfield F5 in 1996 (although I’ll note the 2007 June outbreak that produced the very long track tornado through places like Menominee reservation was almost certainly violent. The forest damage is some of the most impressive I’ve ever seen, and I believe the scar may still be visible on satellite?), and 2) that we’ve avoided having an higher-end event with at least a few intense/violent tornadoes in a single day for decades. Even when we’ve had set-ups that held that kind of potential (April 10, 2011 and June 7, 2007 just to name the two best examples in my lifetime), we’ve dodged that bullet so far.

The fact that the single day record is just 27 tornadoes goes to show that the state has been incredibly lucky to some extent.
Click to expand...

Pictures of the tornado you mentioned can be found here

 
DanLarsen34 said:
Regardless of where yesterday ends up in Wisconsin history, I do think we got quite lucky this week.

Wisconsin is, in my view, absolutely due for a higher-end outbreak that involves intense/violent tornadoes. As set-ups like this potentially become more common with climate change, we’re going to see an event that not only breaks the single day tornado record, but ends up producing the kind of event that every other state around us has had at one point in the past century.

I think it’s a bit of a happy accident that the state has 1) not seen a violent rated tornado since the Oakfield F5 in 1996 (although I’ll note the 2007 June outbreak that produced the very long track tornado through places like Menominee reservation was almost certainly violent. The forest damage is some of the most impressive I’ve ever seen, and I believe the scar may still be visible on satellite?), and 2) that we’ve avoided having an higher-end event with at least a few intense/violent tornadoes in a single day for decades. Even when we’ve had set-ups that held that kind of potential (April 10, 2011 and June 7, 2007 just to name the two best examples in my lifetime), we’ve dodged that bullet so far.

The fact that the single day record is just 27 tornadoes goes to show that the state has been incredibly lucky to some extent.
Click to expand...
I feel the exact same way about here in Northern Indiana (talking mainly around South Bend). It's insane how many risks we've been under this season, and it's ended up underwhelming (minor exception being last night).

I was telling someone else who's also interested in severe weather at my work that we're due for a higher-end outbreak of violent tornadoes around here. Much like Wisconsin, it's been a happy accident that the last "outbreak" we got around here specifically was October 24th 2001
where the worst tornado we got was an F3 that tracked through three counties. That setup was very reminiscent of the QLCS tornado outbreak that hit Alabama on the morning of 4/27/11.



As a whole of Indiana, the last outbreak that the state's had (another linear QLCS tornado outbreak) was 11/17/13 where the highest rating was an EF3. Which that day we dodged a huge bullet, as the major talking point was if the supercells in Illinois were gonna remain long-track discrete, or if they were gonna form a line, in which it did and we just had QLCS tornadoes.



Besides that though, the last historic "violent" outbreak Indiana has had, was our part in the Super Outbreak of 1974 where we had the historic F4 tornado track through the state, as well as a few other tornadoes that day in the state.



Of course the only other historic violent outbreak, besides the Super Outbreak was of course Palm Sunday in 1965.



As a whole, I just feel like we're due for another Palm Sunday-esque outbreak, similar to what Dan said about Wisconsin.
 
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