tennessee storm chaser
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Now let’s see what can get out ahead that soon
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Now let’s see what can get out ahead that soon
kcyalater
Member
i think birmingham, AL lucky streak of 5 years with no tornado warnings is in jeopardy tonight
Is that right? No warnings for 5 years? That seems impossible
KevinH
Member
All I can say is: NO. Just NO!
I think all of N GA should be in the enhanced risk?
KevinH
Member
This severe weather thread specifically has to do with severe storms and tornadoes. Like Michelle said, because of how busy this event is expected to be THE MODERATORS are saying to move discussions about the fire to that thread.
If this thread included damaging winds, AND tornadoes, AND hail, AND flooding, AND winter weather, AND fire it would be a MESS, which is not what we want during times like this. This website has been there before and it has become to chaotic than it is worth. Separating hazards for the same event is sometimes the best thing.
Turn on (email?) notifications for the threads you are interested in and open new windows for each thread to keep up lol
Pretty clear uptrend on HRRR guidance for tonight. Not take-it-to-the-bank levels of confidence, but it's picking up on 1) embedded QLCS rotations, with at least conditional sigtor potential, and 2) some possible stuff out ahead of it, which will likely mingle with the line itself, which could lead to nudgers that enhance QLCS sigtor potential.
KevinH
Member
The ENH risk is wind driven, but we will see what the SPC says at 4p ET.
The 2am (06z) D1 update tomorrow should be interesting, but I am not sure if it will be valid until 8am ET MONDAY, or 8am ET TUESDAY????? I may not be going to sleep tonight.. sigh
KevinH
Member
That last picture in the bottom right had discrete cells directly to my SW. I am REALLY WONDERING if they are going to make it to me before the line, or if they will merge with it???
Grand Poo Bah
Member
I'm not really buying into the tornado threat today at all, but a very big thing to note is all the CAMs were showing 100% cloud coverage from sun up to sundown today. For example, here is yesterday's 12z HRRR forecast for right now. Compare that to current satellite imagery and it's a much different story. If trends continue, i'll be a lot more bullish about today.
VultureDirge89
Member
The overall environment and timeline for tomorrow is kind of reminding me of a more widespread version of Feb 23-24, 2016 which ended up spitting out significant tornadoes even after it went linear, as well as plenty of damaging winds. I'm definitely not sleeping on this one.
Not so sure about the strong tornado threat this afternoon across the mid-MSV, but across the lower MSV into the Southeast late tonight is a different story, and with ample WAA and strong forcing, I'm not concerned about cloud cover and diurnal warming at that point.
Kds86z
Member
slenker
Member
In Trey's newest forecast video, he discusses that there's a solid amount of perpendicularity between the initiating boundary and the 0-3km shear vector with the further north parts of the ENH risk. If the cold front is both slower than anticipated and is indeed much further to the west right now than originally believed from models, I would not sleep on a QLCS tornado risk in that area due to the increased moisture content that will result, especially with those low-level hodographs being shown.
kcyalater
Member
i was wrong.
it’s been four years.
Jefferson County marks record four-year streak without tornado warnings
Jefferson County, Alabama marks record four-year streak without tornado warnings
www.wvtm13.com
KevinH
Member
And so it begins:
Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 53
Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
